中国货币政策中介目标的量价选择 ――现实困境与混频数据模型预测效果分析
The Choice of China′s Monetary Policy Intermediate Target in Quantity and Price ―Real difficulties and empirical research with ADL？？MIDAS Model

数量型目标效果弱化和价格型目标体系尚未形成是现阶段中国货币政策中介目标选择的现实困境。理论分析表明,互联网金融和影子银行业务迅速发展、商业银行资产业务多元化以及金融脱媒等因素削弱了数量型目标的可测性、可控性及其与最终目标的相关性;市场基准利率缺失、利率双轨制、金融市场外部冲击多发、软预算约束部门存在以及经济结构扭曲等因素阻碍了价格型目标体系的转型。混频数据模型的预测结果显示,现阶段价格型中介目标更为有效。由数量型目标向价格型目标转型是金融深化的客观要求,推进利率市场化和软预算约束体制改革、坚持并不断完善价格型目标调控体系是未来一段时期最优的政策选择。
The weakening of the quantitative target and the imperfect of price target system are real difficulties of the choice of China′s monetary policy intermediate target at the present stage. Theoretical analysis shows that, the rapid development of internet financial and shadow banking, diversification of commercial bank assets and financial disintermediation have weakened the measurability, controllability and correlation with the ultimate goal of quantitative target; the absence of market benchmark interest rate, dual？？track interest rate, the external impact of the financial market, the existence of soft budget constraint and economic structure distortion have hindered the transformation of the price target system. The prediction based on ADL？？MIDAS model shows the present priced intermediate target is more effective. This paper holds that, transformation from quantitative target to price target is the objective requirement of financial deepening, promoting the reform of interest rate marketization and soft budget constraints, insisting on and constantly perfecting price target control system are optimal policy choices in the future