Stability reliability of a cutting slope in Laohuzui Hydropower Station in Tibet of China

Abstract The Hoek–Brown empirical formulas are widely used to estimate the mechanical parameters of a rock mass. However, there exists a problem of variability and uncertainty in the mechanical parameters of a rock mass estimated by the Hoek–Brown empirical formulas. To do this, we present a method to implement a reliability analysis of the rock mass stability directly starting with the basic variables of the Hoek–Brown empirical formulas. First, a quantitative assessment of the disturbance factor is recommended to overcome the subjectivity and limitation of estimating the disturbance factor according to the guidelines by Hoek et al. Second, a performance function is built up together with the safety factor of a micro-unit. Third, the Rosenblueth point estimate method is chosen to estimate the mean and standard deviation of the factor of safety. Finally, the stability reliability of a cutting slope in Laohuzui Hydropower Station in Tibet of China is analyzed. The results of the cutting slope show good agreement with the rock mass failure that occurred