Simulating and forecasting spatio-temporal characteristic of land-use/cover change with numerical model and remote sensing: a case study in Fuxian Lake Basin, China

ABSTRACT The land-use/cover (LUC) change (LUCC) in small-scale basins can strongly impact regional environments and developments, and understanding the spatio-temporal characteristics of LUCC is important for sustainable development planning. This study explored the spatio-temporal characteristics of China’s Fuxian Lake Basin in 2017–2067, which may provide decision-making support for ecological and environmental protection measures. Landsat-7 ETM+ and Landsat-8 OLI images combined with a cellular automata–Markov model were used to simulate and forecast LUCC, and expand analysis and reduce analysis methods were applied to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of LUCC in this basin. The results showed that in 2017–2067: (1) arable land, forestland and water would be expected to expand; (2) garden, grassland, building region, road, structure, artificial piling and digging land, and desert and bare surface would contract; (3) the rate of arable land expansion in 2032–2037 and the rate of grassland loss in 2057–2062 would be the largest changes, reaching 1.670 and 0.856 km2/year, respectively and (4) the expansion and contraction of different LUCC classes were closely related to the “Four Retire Three Return” policy implemented by the local government. Therefore, the protection measures for environment should be set in advance according to the forecasting results of this study