Prediction of conversion to multiple sclerosis using the 2017 McDonald and 2016 MAGNIMS criteria in patients with clinically isolated syndrome: a retrospective single-centre study

Until 2018, the 2010 McDonald criteria were the most widely used criteria in the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (MS), defining dissemination in space (DIS) and time (DIT).1 In the evaluation of DIS and DIT, clinical and MRI findings are taken into account.1 Considering new scientific insights and advances in diagnostic techniques, two adaptations of the 2010 McDonald criteria were published in short sequence: (1) the 2017 McDonald criteria and (2) the 2016 MAGNIMS criteria.2,3 In predicting the conversion from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to clinically definite MS (CDMS), the 2016 MAGNIMS and 2010 McDonald criteria demonstrated similar sensitivity and specificity.4 In contrast, the 2017 McDonald criteria demonstrated a higher sensitivity but a lower specificity than the 2010 McDonald criteria.5,6 Considering the recency of the publication of the 2017 McDonald criteria, the prediction of conversion to MS and CDMS using this set of criteria has not yet been compared to the 2016 MAGNIMS criteria. Therefore, it is our aim to assess and compare the predictive properties of conversion to MS and CDMS by retrospectively applying the 2017 McDonald and the 2016 MAGNIMS criteria to a single-centre cohort of patients diagnosed with CIS according to the 2010 McDonald criteria. Furthermore, we evaluate the influence of modifications and differences between the 2017 McDonald and the 2016 MAGNIMS criteria on the prediction of conversion to MS and CDMS