气候变化对水文水资源影响评价的不确定研究进展
Review for Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in Uncertainties Research

DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2020.92018, PP. 169-178

Keywords: 气候变化，不确定性，评估方法
Climate Change, Uncertainties, Evaluation Methods

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Abstract:

本文归纳总结了气候变化对水文水资源不确定性研究进展以及不确定性的应用领域。气候变化下的不确定性主要源于人的认识受限，并将很多因素归结为人类活动导致引起，却忽视了系统自身存在的不确定性。总结了常用的不确定评估方法，对未来气候变化的不确定性进行了预估并提出了明确的研究方向和指导建议，旨在更为准确地对水文不确定性进行研究和评估预测，对全球气候变化背景下寻求变化相应对策、促进水资源可持续利用等方面具有重要意义。
This paper summarized the research progress and application fields on hydrology and water resources on the uncertainty of climate change. It was mainly due to the limited understanding of human beings about the hydrology and water resources uncertainties under climate change. Although scholars and experts attributed many factors to human activities, they ignored the uncertainties of the system itself. The paper summarized the common uncertainty assessment methods and estimated the uncertainty of future climate change to study and forecast the hydrology uncertainty more accurately. At the same time, the paper came up with clear research direction and guidance recommendations. It is significant to seek change adaptation countermeasures and promote sustainable use of water resources in the context of global climate change.

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