全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...

近60年海河流域降水量变化特征分析
Temporal Variation of Precipitation Characteristics in Haihe Basin during Recent 60 Years

DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2019.82014, PP. 117-124

Keywords: 降水量,时间趋势,突变,周期,海河流域
Precipitation
, Temporal Trends, Abrupt Changes, Periods, Haihe Basin

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

利用1959~2016年海河流域57个站点的降水资料,采用最小二乘趋势拟合、Mann-Kendall非参数检验和Morlet小波等方法,分析了海河流域降水的趋势、突变及周期特征。结果表明:近60年来,海河流域降水总体呈减少趋势,线性倾向率为?0.57 mm a-2;海河流域降水空间的总趋势是由中北部平原区分别向西北和东南两侧减少;没有检测到明显的突变过程;海河流域降水量存在2.5年、4.9年显著周期(P < 0.05),以及9.8年、16.5年和23.4年非显著性周期。显著性周期主要发生在1959~1976年和1986~2005年。根据近60年降雨规律,2005~2016年海河流域处于降水偏少期,预测未来几年很有可能向降水充沛期过渡。
According to the precipitation data of 57 meteorological stations in Haihe basin during 1957-2016, temporal variation of precipitation characteristics was explored used the least-squares linear model, Mann-Kendall method, and Morlet wavelet. The results showed that: 1) annual precipitation in Haihe basin decreased with an average slope of ?0.57 mm a?2; 2) precipitation decreased from the rainy region in the northern plains to northwest and southeast region; 3) no abrupt changes were detected for annual precipitation; and 4) two significant periods (at a 95% confident level) of 2.5 and 4.9 years and three non-significant periods of 9.8, 16.5 and 23.4 years were detected on a basin scale, and the significant periods mainly detected during 1959-1976 and 1986-2005. Furthermore, all of the results indicated that annual precipitation is less than normal period from 2005 to 2016, and rainy periods (more than normal period) will come in the recent years.

References

[1]  缪驰远, 魏欣, 孙雷, 等. 嫩江、哈尔滨两地48年来夏季降雨特征分析[J]. 资源科学, 2007, 29(6): 25-31. MIAO Chiyuan, WEI Xin, SUN Lei, et al. Characteristics of precipitation in summer seasons in Nenjiang and Haerbin over the past 48 years. Resources Science, 2007, 29(6): 25-31. (in Chinese)
[2]  陈立华, 王焰, 易凯, 等. 钦州市降雨及入海河流径流演变规律与趋势分析[J]. 水文, 2016, 36(6): 89-96. CHEN Lihua, WANG Yan, YI Kai, et al. Analysis of rainfall and river runoff change tendency in Qinzhou city. Hydrology, 2016, 36(6): 89-96. (in Chinese)
[3]  王希娟, 唐红玉, 张景华. 近40年青海东部春季降水变化特征及小波分析[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2006, 24(3): 21-25. WANG Xijuan, TANG Hongyu, ZHANG Jinghua. The evolvement characteristics and wavelet analysis of spring precipitation of last 40 years in east Qinghai. Agricultural Research in Arid Areas, 2006, 24(3): 21-25. (in Chinese)
[4]  朱珊珊, 姚林, 黄辉曦. 基于时间序列的滇池流域降雨变化特征分析[J]. 水电能源科学, 2014(3): 15-18. ZHU Shanshan, YAO Lin and HUANG Huixi. Analysis of rainfall variation in Dianchi basin based on time series. Hydropower Energy Science, 2014(3): 21-25. (in Chinese)
[5]  LIANG, L., LI, L. and LIU, Q. Precipitation variability in Northeast China from 1961 to 2008. Journal of Hydrology, 2011, 404(1): 67-76.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.04.020
[6]  邵晓梅, 许月卿, 严昌荣. 黄河流域降水序列变化的小波分析[J]. 北京大学学报(自然科学版)网络版(预印本), 2006, 42(1): 503-509. SHAO Xiaomei, XU Yueqing and YAN Changrong. Wavelet analysis of rainfall variation in the Yellow River basin. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis on Line, 2006, 42(1): 503-509. (in Chinese)
[7]  徐志龙, 曹阳, 杨敏. 1951-2005年海河流域汛期降水量的时空变化特征分析[J]. 水文, 2009, 29(1): 85-88. XU Zhilong, CAO Yang and YANG Min. Analysis of temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation during flood season in haihe river basin from 1951 to 2005. Journal of China Hydrology, 2009, 29(1): 85-88. (in Chinese)
[8]  陈阿娇, 贺新光, 秦建新, 等. 长江流域近51a来日降水时空变异的多尺度特征[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(5): 794-803. CHEN Ajiao, HE Xinguang, QIN Jianxin, et al. Multiscale characteristics of spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation in Yangtze river basin during 1963-2013. Resources and Environment of the Yangtze River Basin, 2016, 25(5): 794-803. (in Chinese)
[9]  王哲, 只德国, 李涛涛, 等. 海河流域降雨时间序列小波分析[J]. 海河水利, 2012(3): 30-32. WANG Zhe, ZHI Deguo, LI Taotao, et al. Wavelet analysis of rainfall time series in Haihe river basin. Haihe River Water Conservancy, 2012(3): 30-32. (in Chinese)
[10]  束美珍, 刘丽红. 海河流域近51年降水量时空变化特征[J]. 南水北调与水利科技, 2015, 13(6): 1065-1068. SHU Meizhen, LIU Lihong. Spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in Haihe River basin in recent 51 years. South-North Water Diversion and Water Conservancy Technology, 2015, 13(6): 1065-1068. (in Chinese)
[11]  YAN, Y., YANG, Z. and LIU, Q. Nonlinear trend in streamflow and its response to climate change under complex eco-hydrological patterns in the Yellow River basin, China. Ecological Modelling, 2013, 252(1): 220-227.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.05.022
[12]  刘丽娜, 刘卫林, 查思慧. 抚河临水流域降雨量变化特征及趋势分析[J]. 人民珠江, 2017(10): 30-35 + 49. LIU Lina, LIU Weilin, ZHA Sihui. Variation characteristics and trend analysis of precipitation in Fuhe-Linshui River Basin. Pearl River, 2017(10): 30-35 + 49. (in Chinese)
[13]  ULLAH, S., YOU, Q., ULLAH, W., et al. Observed changes in precipitation in China-Pakistan economic corridor during 1980-2016. Atmospheric Research, 2018, 210: 1-14.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.04.007
[14]  YANG, P., XIA, J., ZHANG, Y., et al. Temporal and spatial variations of precipitation in northwest China during 1960-2013. Atmospheric Research, 2017, 183: 283-295.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.09.014
[15]  QIANG, L., Yang, Z. F. Quantitative estimation of the impact of climate change on actual evapotranspiration in the Yellow River Basin, China. Journal of Hydrology, 2010, 395(3): 226-234.
[16]  郭汉伟, 乐贵明. 太阳黑子群周期的小波分析[J]. 自然科学进展, 2004, 14(5): 597-600. GUO Hanwei, LE Guiming. Wavelet analysis of sunspot group periods. Progress in Natural Science, 2004, 14(5): 597-600. (in Chinese)
[17]  王璐璐, 延军平, 王鹏涛, 等. 海河流域不同等级降水时空变化特征及其影响[J]. 资源科学, 2015, 37(4): 690-699. WANG Lulu, YAN Junping, WANG Pengtao, et al. Spatial-temporal variation in precipitation for different categories and impacts in the Haihe River Basin. Resource Science, 2015, 37(4): 690-699. (in Chinese)

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133