利用1990~2016年的市区非农业人口数据，首先对山东省城市规模等级结构演变概况进行研究，并运用城市首位指数、位序–规模法则对地区城市规模分布演变进行计量分析，并将2016年的计算结果与其它省区对比，进一步分析城市规模演变的空间特征。结果表明：山东省城市体系规模结构呈双核心结构，首位城市垄断性较弱，中间位序城市数量较多且较为发育，小城市规模发育水平偏低；城市规模分布集中性较为波动，集中度不足，但呈增强趋势；城市体系结构容量不断增大；城市体系规模结构属于首位分布和位序–规模分布的过渡类型，首位城市济南有较大的发展空间；影响城市等级规模结构演变的因子主要有经济因素、交通因素、自然因素、政策因素，四大因素共同作用于城市数量、城市规模、城市结构等方面，最终影响城市等级规模结构的演变。
Using the urban non-agricultural population data from 1990 to 2016, the paper firstly studies the evolution of urban scale structure in Shandong Province, and uses the city’s first index, order-scale rule to measure the evolution of regional city size distribution, and will 2016. The calculation re-sults of the year are compared with other provinces and regions to further analyze the spatial characteristics of urban scale evolution. The results show that the scale structure of the urban system in Shandong Province has a dual-core structure. The first city has a weak monopoly. The number of middle-order cities is relatively large and relatively developed. The scale of small-scale cities is low. The concentration of urban scales is relatively fluctuating and concentrated. Insuffi-cient, but showing an increasing trend; urban system capacity is increasing; urban system scale structure belongs to the first distribution and the order-scale distribution transition type, the first city Jinan has a large development space; the factors affecting the evolution of urban scale structure. There are mainly economic factors, traffic factors, natural factors, and policy factors. The four factors affect the number of cities, the size of the city, and the urban structure, which ultimately affect the evolution of the scale structure of the city.
