基于情景分析的食品供应链质量安全风险研究
Research on Quality and Safety Risk of Food Supply Chain Based on Scenario Analysis

近年来食品质量安全问题备受关注，食品质量安全风险对社会安全稳定、行业可持续发展、居民健康生活产生恶劣的影响，增加了造成各方利益损失的可能，监控食品供应链质量安全风险的难度源于供应环境的不确定性，源于食品供应链的复杂性，源于各环节风险的传导性，文章将情景分析(Scenario Analysis)方法引入食品供应链质量安全风险的研究中来，按食品供应链环境安全分化出8个不同情景，并对三个典型情景进行风险识别，得到基于情景的风险组合，应用模糊综合评价和G1法对风险组合进行评估，量化不同情景下的风险损失，得出不同情景下的风险应对措施，对把握食品供应链质量安全风险的关键控制点有一定的指导意义。
In recent years, food quality and safety issues have received much attention. Food quality and safety risks have a bad impact on social security and stability, sustainable development of the industry, and healthy living of residents, increasing the possibility of loss of interests of all parties and monitoring the quality and safety risks of food supply chains. The difficulty stems from the uncertainty of the supply environment, the complexity of the food supply chain, and the conduc-tivity of each link. The article introduces the Scenario Analysis method into the research of the quality and safety risks of the food supply chain. The supply chain environment is safely differen-tiated into 8 different scenarios, and the risk identification of three typical scenarios is obtained, and the scenario-based risk combination is obtained. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and the G1 method are used to evaluate the risk combination, and the risk loss under different scenarios is quantified. Risk response measures under different scenarios have certain guiding significance for grasping the key control points of food supply chain quality and safety risks.