农业面源污染的环境库兹涅茨拟合曲线验证与分析——以中国西北地区某省为例
Verification and Analysis of Environmental Kuznets Fitting Curve of Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution—A Province in Northwest China Is Taken as an Example

为了更加全面地了解中国西北地区某省的农业面源污染特征，选取化肥施用强度、农药施用强度、农膜使用密度、畜禽养殖化学污染物排泄总量、农村居民年生活垃圾量作为农业面源污染的主要评测指标，结合第一次全国污染源普查数据，根据统计年鉴基础数据资料核算出五类农业面源污染指标，对人均农林牧渔产值与农业面源污染的环境库兹涅茨拟合曲线(EKC)进行关系验证。结果表明：研究时段内，该地区农业面源污染整体上呈逐年上升趋势。从农业面源污染与人均农林牧渔产值的EKC拟合曲线检验可以看出，化肥施用强度、农膜使用密度与人均农林牧渔业产值呈较为显著的倒“U”型关系；畜禽养殖化学污染物排泄总量与人均农林牧渔产值之间呈正“N”型关系；而农药施用强度、农村居民年生活垃圾总量与人均农林牧渔业产值呈线性上升关系，不符合库兹涅茨曲线。结合实证分析结果，提出有益于改善农业面源污染状况，提高农业经济增长，促进农业环境保护协调绿色发展的建议与措施。
In order to have a more comprehensive understanding of the characteristics of agricultural non-point source pollution in a province in northwest China, the application intensity of fertilizer, the application intensity of pesticide, the density of agricultural film, the total discharge of chemical pollutants in livestock and poultry breeding, and the annual domestic garbage of rural residents were selected as the main evaluation indexes of agricultural non-point source pollution. Combined with the first national census data of pollution sources, five agricultural non-point source pollution indexes were calculated based on the basic data of statistical yearbook. The results show that the overall trend of agricultural non-point source pollution is increasing year by year. From the EKC fitting curve test of agricultural non-point source pollution and per capita agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery output value, it can be seen that the intensity of fertilizer application, the density of agricultural film use and per capita agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery output value have a significant inverted u-shaped relationship. There was a positive n-type relationship between the total discharge of chemical pollutants and the per capita output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. However, the intensity of pesticide application, the total annual household garbage of rural residents and the per capita output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery showed a linear increase, which did not conform to the Kuznets curve. Combined with the results of empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some suggestions and measures to improve the situation of non-point source pollution in agriculture, increase agricultural economic growth and promote coordinated green development of agricultural environmental protection.