黄河近550年天然径流量演变特征
Long-Term Evolution in Natural Runoff of the Yellow River during the Past 550 Years

DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2019.84037, PP. 313-323

Keywords: 天然径流，历史分析，黄河
Natural Runoff, Historical Analysis, The Yellow River

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Abstract:

长历史序列径流量分析是深入认识河川径流演变特征的基础。黄河流域是我国水资源短缺地区，研究其天然径流量历史变化对流域水资源调控利用具有重要意义。本文基于黄河1470~2017年天然径流量数据，采用滑动平均法、MK趋势检验和距平累积等方法分析天然径流量变化趋势和阶段变化特征，运用Pettitt法检验突变性和Hurst指数评价天然径流量持续性，初步揭示黄河548年天然径流量历史演变规律。研究表明，黄河天然径流量整体为显著下降趋势，且存在较强持续性，在未来一段时间内将依旧保持减少趋势。在19世纪中后期即清中晚期，天然径流量最丰富且波动最剧烈。在1641、1731、1757、1816、1864 (1861)、1933、1989年出现较为明显的突变现象。1865~1989年和1990~2017年天然径流量较1470~1864年下降明显。黄河天然径流量多年来以平水年出现频率最大，平水年和丰水年以连续形式出现可能性较枯水年大。黄河天然径流量大致存在5个丰水期、2个平水期和5个枯水期，近些年来主要以枯水为主同时呈现3~4年的周期波动。
Long-term historical runoff analysis is the basis to understand the evolution of discharge in rivers. The Yellow River Basin is located in the semi-arid region in northern China, and has long been suffered from water scarcity. It is important to investigate the historical changes of natural runoff to regulate and utilize water resources. The present study applied the sliding average analysis, MK test and anomaly accumulation to analyze the changing trend and fluctuation, and used the Pettitt method to test the abrupt and Hurst index to evaluate the annual runoff with historical data of the Yellow River from 1470 to 2017. The results show that natural runoff has a significant downward trend. The time series remained strong persistence, indicating that the natural runoff still keeps decreasing in the future. During the research period, we found the most abundant natural runoff in the middle and late 19th century and late Qing Dynasty. Abrupt changes occurred in 1641, 1731, 1757, 1816, 1864 (1861), 1933, 1989. The long-term time series indicated that the Yellow River has experienced five abundant water periods, two normal stages and five dry periods, and will stay in dry condition in the future. Natural runoff showed a periodicity of 3~4 years examined by wavelet transform.

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