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欧盟碳排放市场价格波动周期特征研究
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Abstract:
随着碳排放权交易形式的应用越来越广泛，碳排放权很可能将逐渐成为企业生产和发展中必然存在的成本要素和资产要素。利用HP滤波法对欧盟主要的碳排放权交易市场中碳排放权交易价格的周期性特征进行了分解和研究。研究结果表明，碳排放权交易价格总体呈现下降趋势，但在每个交易阶段内都存在完整的上升、下降波动周期特征。此外，相关突发政策性变化会影响价格的不规则波动周期的波动方向和周期长度，但是影响程度呈逐渐减弱的趋势，而交易价格中季节性特征影响则越来越显著。
With the more and more extensive use of carbon emission trading forms, carbon emission rights are likely to become the inevitable cost elements and asset factors in the production and development of enterprises. HP filtering method is used to decompose and study the periodic characteristics of the price of carbon emissions trading in the main carbon emissions trading market of the European Union. The results show that the price of carbon emission trading has a downward trend in general, but there is a complete cycle characteristic of rising and decreasing fluctuation in each trading stage. In addition, the related sudden policy changes will affect the fluctuation direction and the cycle length of the irregular fluctuation cycle of the price, but the influence degree is gradually weakening, and the seasonal characteristics of the transaction price are more and more significant.
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