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影响北京市就业问题主要因素的统计分析
Statistical Analysis of the Main Factors Affecting Beijing’s Employment Problems

DOI: 10.12677/SA.2019.84074, PP. 654-663

Keywords: 就业,回归分析,索洛余值法,协整检验,格兰杰因果关系检验
Employment
, Regression Analysis, Solow Residual Method, Co-Integration Test, Granger Causality Test

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Abstract:

就业问题对于每个国家来讲必然都是个严峻的话题。地区就业情形的好坏关乎到地区乃至国家的经济发展和社会进步。稳定就业形势、扩大就业规模以及拥有良好的就业环境,才能够提高人民的生活质量,从而达到国家的长治久安和社会主义和谐社会的构建。但是,在经济新常态下,我国就业出现了许多问题都还有待去解决。因此本篇论文着重探究经济发展、技术进步以及对外贸易这三个因素分别对就业问题的影响情况,并进行依次研究分析,再结合当下背景,适当提出实质性的意见以便达到稳定就业、充分就业的和谐盛况。本文通过运用Spss、Eviews软件对影响就业情况的经济增长这一因素进行回归分析,探讨经济增长与就业人数指标间的线性关系;对技术进步影响就业规模进行回归分析,再用索洛余值法计算技术进步影响就业人数的总量;最后运用Eviews软件对对外贸易与就业进行协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,得到这一因素影响就业情况的结论。
Employment is a serious topic for every country. The quality of regional employment situation is related to the economic development and social progress of the region and even the country. Stable employment situation, expanding employment scale and having a good employment environment can improve the quality of life of the people, so as to achieve the country's long-term stability and the construction of a harmonious socialist society. However, under the new normal of economy, there are many problems in China's employment that still need to be solved. Therefore, this paper focuses on the study and analysis of the influence of economic development, technological progress and counter trade on the employment issue, and then puts forward some substantive opinions based on the current background, so as to achieve the harmonious situation of stable employment and full employment, and combined with the current background, appropriate substantive views in order to achieve stable employment, full employment of harmony. In this paper, the regression analysis explores linear relationship between economic growth and employment indicators by applying Spss and Eviews software factors affecting the employment situation of economic growth. The employment scale affected by technological progress is analyzed by regression, and the total number of employment affected by technological progress is calculated by Solow Residual Method. At last, Eviews software is used to carry out co-integration test and granger causality test on foreign trade and employment, and the conclusion that this factor affects employment is reached.

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