煤炭税负变动对宏观经济的影响分析——基于投入产出模型
The Influence of Coal-Tax Burden Change on China’s Macro-Economy—Based on the Input-Output Model

本文基于《中国2015年投入产出延长表(42部门)》的数据，通过投入产出模型，研究煤炭行业税负增加10%~100%时，对煤炭行业及其它行业价格的影响、对总产出的影响、对能源消费的影响及对最终总需求(居民总消费、总投资、总出口)的影响。研究结果表明煤炭行业税负增加后会导致价格上涨、煤炭消费量减少、总产出下降、最终总需求(居民总消费、总投资、总出口)的减少。对价格、总产出、最终总需求等影响较大的前10个行业都是第二产业中的重工业，与我国当前经济所处的重化工阶段有关。煤炭行业税负增加对第一产业和第三产业的影响较小。
Having referred to the data of the “China’s Input-Output Extension Table 2015 (42 sectors covered)”, this article, based on the input-output model, explores how an increase from 10% to 100% in coal tax burden influences the areas including pricing of coal industry and others as well, the total output, the energy consumption, and even the total final demand. As shown from the study results, such an increase in tax burden of the coal industry will lead to higher prices, lower coal consumption, less total output, and reduced final total demand, involving total household con-sumption, total investment, and total exports. Besides, the heavy industries in the secondary in-dustry are listed in Top 10 in terms of their impact on prices, total output, and final total demand, which is explained by the heavy chemical stage in which China has been located. The variation of tax burden, however, has little impact on the primary industry and the tertiary.