固定资产投资、消费价格指数与经济发展的实证研究：以新疆为视角
An Empirical Study on Fixed Asset Investment, Consumer Price Index and Economic Development: From the Perspective of Xinjiang

DOI: 10.12677/FIN.2020.101004, PP. 30-37

Keywords: “一带一路”，固定资产投资，消费价格指数，经济发展，向量自回归模型
“The Belt and Road”, Fixed Assets Investment, Consumer Price Index, Economic Development, VAR Model

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

在“一带一路”背景下，新疆的经济发展情况更具有研究价值。本文运用时间序列计量等方法，搜集新疆1990~2016年时间序列数据，构建包含新疆固定资产投资(FAI)、消费价格指数(CPI)与经济发展(GDP)三变量的向量自回归模型，本文研究了三者之间的动态变化和相互作用机制，弥补了现有研究的不足，为三个领域的发展与相关政策的制定，提供了有益的经验证据。研究结果表明：新疆固定资产投资、消费价格指数以及经济发展三者的变化具有协同性，仅研究单独的两个变量容易出现偏误。三者间具有紧密的联动关系，并给出政策建议。
Under the background of “The Belt and Road”, the economic development of Xinjiang has more research value. This paper uses time series measurement to collect the time series data of Xinjiang from 1990 to 2016, and constructs a vector autoregressive model containing three variables of Xinjiang fixed asset investment (FAI), consumer price index (CPI) and economic development (GDP), and empirically studies the dynamic characteristics and interaction mechanism of the three, in order to make up for the existing research. Meanwhile, it provides useful empirical evidence for the formulation of relevant policies in Xinjiang. The results show that the three changes in Xinjiang’s fixed asset investment, consumer price index and economic development are synergistic, and only two independent variables are easily mistaken. There is a close linkage between the three, and policy recommendations are given.

References

[1]	郭庆旺, 贾俊. 政府公共资本投资的长期经济增长效应[J]. 经济研究, 2006(7): 29-40.
[2]	张屹山, 孟宪春, 李天宇. 房地产投资对经济增长的空间效应分析[J]. 西安交通大学学报(社会科学版), 2018(1): 12-18.
[3]	肖争艳, 姚一旻. 我国通胀与经济增长放缓福利成本的比较研究[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2012(5): 12-20.
[4]	刘思华. 经济增长和通货膨胀相互关系的历史轨迹与发展趋势——对我国“高增长低通胀高效益”型市场经济运行模式的思考[J]. 学术月刊, 1995(5): 31-38.
[5]	刘子斐, 史敬. VAR模型比较技术及其评价——理论、实证回顾及其应用初探[J]. 金融研究, 2008(5): 130-137.

Full-Text