P2P网络信贷第三方保险费率定价研究——基于风险中性原理
Research on P2P Online Credit Third-Party Insurance Rate Pricing—Based on the Risk-Neutral Principle

本文以2015年央行会同十部委出台的《关于促进互联网金融建行发展的指导意见》(以下简称意见)为背景，实证分析了我国现有的P2P网贷行业分析趋势，并利用Merton期权定价模型并结合风险中性原则建立了P2P网络信贷风险准备金定价模型。从实证结果来看，P2P跑路风险较政策未出台前已经显著降低，P2P网贷行业逐步走向良性发展的道路，在保护了投资者利益的同时扩展了我国金融多样化、多元化的发展。在保持良好发展势头的同时，不能忽略P2P网贷平台可能产生的信贷风险，本文结合当前国际金融背景给出了防范风险的建议。
This article takes the Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of Internet Financial Construction Bank (hereinafter referred to as the Opinion) issued by the Central Bank in conjunction with ten ministries and commissions in 2015 as an empirical analysis of China's existing P2P online loan industry analysis trend, and uses Merton option pricing models and based on the principle of risk neutrality, a P2P network credit risk reserve pricing model was established. From the empirical results, the risk of P2P running has been significantly lower than that before the policy was introduced. The P2P online lending industry is gradually moving towards a benign development path, which expanded the diversification and diversification of China's financial resources while protecting the interests of investors. While maintaining a good momentum of development, we cannot ignore the credit risk that may arise from the P2P online lending platform. This paper gives recommendations on risk prevention in light of the current international financial background.