本文对永仁县耕地资源的数量安全价值、质量安全价值、社会经济安全价值和生态安全价值进行研究分析。利用灰色预测模型对2015~2020年永仁县耕地资源的安全值进行了预测，并提出了相应的对策和措施。结果表明，由于城市化水平在不断提高、人口不断增长永仁县耕地资源综合安全值在2016~2020年间的警度为轻警，但应加以重视以防滑至中警。
The cultivated land is an important part of the land resources. The survival and development of human beings depend on the cultivated land resources, and the cultivated land is the most important material basis for the growth of crops. The quantity security value, quality safety value, social and economic safety value and ecological security value of cultivated land resources in Yongren county were analyzed. Using grey prediction model, the safety value of cultivated land resources in Yongren County in 2015-2020 years was predicted, and the corresponding countermeasures and measures were put forward. The results show that the comprehensive safety value of cultivated land resources in Yongren county is light police in 2016-2020 years since the urbanization level is increasing and the population continues to grow. However, it will slip to the middle police without paying attention to it.
