农村人口比重对京津沪地区碳排放的影响分析
Study on the Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai’s Carbon Emission Impact of Rural Population

DOI: 10.12677/HJAS.2019.97085, PP. 576-587

Keywords: 碳排放，人均GDP，人口，产业结构
Carbon Emission, Per Capita GDP, Population, Industrial Structure

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Abstract:

文章基于北京、天津及上海1995年至2012年的历年宏观数据测算了三市历年的二氧化碳排放量，总结了三市的二氧化碳排放量变化趋势，并采用面板回归模型实证分析了经济增长、技术进步、人口因素与京津沪三市碳排放量的数理关系。回归结果显示，经济总量与人口规模的扩张以及农村人口比重的减少均对碳排放总量的增长有着明显的促进作用，而少儿人口比重则与碳排放量呈显著负相关的关系。此外，与第二产业相比，第一及第三产业的发展均有助于抑制京津沪三市减少二氧化碳排放量。
Based on the panel data from 1995 to 2012, this paper analyzes the mathematical relation between economic, technical progress, demographic factors and Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai’s trend of carbon emission. According to the results, GDP and population size are positively correlated to the carbon emission; whereas, the youth dependency ratio is negatively correlated to the carbon emission. And improving the percentage of first and tertiary industry will reduce carbon emissions.

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