Since 1972 Rita typhoon attacked on Dalian Port and induced severe catastrophe, we were studied on statistical prediction model of typhoon induced wave height and wind speed. With an increasing tendency of the natural hazards frequency and intensity, risk assessment of some design codes for coastal defence infrastructures should be of paramount importance influencing the economic development and a lot of lifes in China. Comparison between existing extreme statistical model like Gumbel, Weibull, P-III distribution or Probable Maximum Typhoon/Hurricane (PMT/PMH), Design Basis Flood (DBF) with our 1975-1980 proposed (CEVD) model showed that all the planned, designed and constructed coastal infrastructures accepted the traditional safety regulations are menaced by possibility of future ty-phoon/hurricane disasters and cannot satisfy the safety requirements with the increasing tendency of the extreme natural hazards. Our first publication in US (J. of Waterway Port Coastal & Ocean Eng. ASCE, 1980, ww4) proposed an new model “Compound Extreme Value Distribution” used for China sea, after then the model was used in “Long term Distribution of Hurricane Characteristics” for Gulf of Mexico & Atlantic coasts, U.S. (OTC.1982). 2005 hurricane Katrina, Rita and 2012 hurricane Sandy induced disasters proved 1982 CEVD and CEVD has been developed into Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD). 2006 MCEVD predicted extreme hazards in New Orleans, Gulf of Mexico and Philadelphia areas. 2013 typhoon Fitow induced disaster in China also proved MCEVD 2006 predicted results.
References
[1]
Casson, E., & Coles, S. (2000). Simulation and Extremal Analysis of Hurricane Events. Appl. Statist, 49, 227-245. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9876.00189
[2]
Coles, S., & Simiu, E. (2003). Estimating Uncertainty in the Extreme Value Analysis of Data Generated by a Hurricane Simulation Model. J. of Engineering Mech, 129, 1288-1294. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9399(2003)129:11(1288)
[3]
Georgiou, P. N., & Davenport, A. G. (1983). Design Wind Speeds in Regions Dominated by Tropical Cyclones. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 13, 139-152. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6105(83)90136-8
[4]
Kirby, W. H., & Moss, M. E. (1987). Summary of Flood-Frequency Analysis in the United States. J Hydrology, 96, 5-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(87)90139-9
[5]
Langley, R. M., & El-Shaarawi, A. H. (1986). On the Calculation of Extreme Wave Heights: A Review. Ocean Eng., 13, 93-118.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0029-8018(86)90006-5
[6]
Liu, D. F. (1982). Long Term Distribution of Hurricane Characteristics. Proceedings Offshore Technology Conference, OTC 4325, Houston, USA, 305-313.
https://doi.org/10.4043/4325-MS
[7]
Liu, D. F. (1989). Extreme Sea Environment Statistics in North Sea. NTNU Research Report Published. Trondheim, Norway: The Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
[8]
Liu, D. F., & Dong, S. (2000). System Analysis of Disaster Prevention Design Criteria for Coastal and Estuarine Cities. China Ocean Engineering, 14, China Ocean Press.
[9]
Liu, D. F., & Ma, F. S. (1980). Prediction o f Extreme Wave Heights and Wind Velocities. Journal of the Waterway Port Coastal and Ocean Engineering, 106, 469-479.
[10]
Liu, D. F., & Shi, J. G. (1993). The Joint Long-Term Distribution of Design Environmental Factors for Offshore Structures; Multivariable Probabilities and Simulating Method. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 12, 465-474.
[11]
Liu, D. F., & Wang, F. Q. (2009b). Prediction of Typhoon Triggered Sea Hazards in China. Proc. OCEANS’09, IEEE, 090204-001, Bremen, Germany.
[12]
Liu, D. F., & Wang, F. Q. (2015a). Natural Hazards Crisis: Disaster Prediction, Mitigation and Prevention, Emerging Economies, Risk Intelligent Technology (pp. 129-136). London: Taylor &Francis Group.
[13]
Liu, D. F., & Wang, F. Q. (2015c). Risk Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants against Natural Disasters: Probability Prediction and Disaster Prevention Infrastructures (131 p). New York, USA: NOVA Publishers.
[14]
Liu, D. F., & Wang, L. P. (2006). Theory of Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution and Its Application to Extreme Sea State Prediction. Chinese Science Bulletin, 51, 2926-2930.
[15]
Liu, D. F., & Wen, S. Q. (2002). Poisson-Gumbel Mixed Compound Distribution and Its Application. Chinese Science Bulletin, 47, 1901-1906.
[16]
Liu, D. F., & Zhang, M. X. (2003). Stochastic Analysis Method of Sea Environment Simulated by Numerical Model. China Ocean Engineering, 17, 239-246.
[17]
Liu, D. F., Li, H. J., & Wang, F. Q. (2013). Chapter 1. Typhoon/Hurricane/Tropical Cyclone Disasters: Prediction, Prevention and Mitigation. In Natural Disasters: Prevention, Risk Factors and Management (pp. 1-72). USA: NOVA Science Publishers, Inc.
[18]
Liu, D. F., Liu, G. L., & Wang, F. Q. (2015b). Four Natural Disasters in US and China: A Evidence for Validity of Probability Prediction by Compound Extreme Value Distribution. 5th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change.
[19]
Liu, D. F., Liu, G. L., & Wang, F. Q. (2016). Risk Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants against Natura Disasters. Advances in Environmental and Agricultural Science, 408-423.
[20]
Liu, D. F., Liu, G. L., & Wang, F. Q. (2017). Typhoon/Hurricane Disaster Prediction and Prevention for Coastal, Offshore and Nuclear Power Plan Infrastructure, In Hurricanes and Climate Change (pp. 135-166). Springer International Publishing.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-47594-3_6
[21]
Liu, D. F., Pang, L., & Xie, B. T. (2009a). Typhoon Disaster in China: Prediction, Prevention and Mitigation. Natural Hazards, 49, 421-436.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9262-2
[22]
Liu, D. F., Xie, B. T., & Li, H. J. (2011). Design Flood Volume of the Three Gorges Dam Project. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 16, 71-80.
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000287
[23]
Liu, G. L., Liu, D. F., & Wang, F. Q. (2012). Risk Assessment Method for Offshore Structure Based on Global Sensitivity Analysis, Springer Netherlands. Modeling and Simulation in En-gineering, Article ID: 671934. https://doi.org/10.1155/2012/671934
[24]
Naffa, M. G., Fanos, A. M., & Elganainy, M. A. (1991). Characteristics of Waves off the Mediterranean Coast of Egypt. J Coast Res, 7, 665-676.
[25]
Ochi, M. K. (1990). Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes in Engineering and Physical Sciences (Chap. 6, pp. 111-133). New York: John Wiley & Sons.
[26]
Quek, S. T., & Cheong, H. F. (1992). Prediction of Extreme 3-sec. Gusts Accounting for Seasonal Effects. J. Structure Safety, 11, 121-129.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-4730(92)90004-7
[27]
Resio, D. T. (2007). White Paper on Estimation Hurricane Inundation Probabilities (pp. 1-10). U.S. Army Corps of Engineering Report.
