The River Chenab is one of the main western rivers
of the Indus River system in Pakistan, which undergoes intensive inundation
almost every year during the late monsoon period. The present study performs
flood frequency analyses for the river basin as well as simulates different
levels of
water flow in the system to speculate all kinds of inundation under different
scenarios, i.e., to predict flood
hazard and flood extended areas. Flood frequency analyses were performed at
MARALA Headworks to Khanki Headworks. Data were collected from the Punjab Irrigation Department,
Pakistan and from USGS and ASTER GDEM. The peak discharge of MARALA Headworks had been analyzed for 25 years. The preprocessing was performed in HEC Geo-RAS after
preprocessing model run in HEC-RAS. After analysis the data were exported in HEC-RAS to
ARCMAP to generate a floodplain and inundationmap.Our
analysis generated the result that different areas would be under water in different return periods.Flood hazards maps for different return periods 10,20,50 and 100 years were
conducted using annual peaks flow of 35 years from 1980 to 2016.The maximum discharges at up and down stream for
different periods were obtained using Gumbel distribution model results which
References
[1]
Latif, M., Syed, F.S. and Hannachi, A. (2017) Rainfall Trends in the South Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Related Large-Scale Dynamics with Focus over Pakistan. Climate Dynamics, 48, 3565-3581. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3284-3
[2]
Adnan, S., Ullah, K., Gao, S., Khosa, A.H. and Wang, Z. (2017) Shifting of Agro-Climatic Zones, Their Drought Vulnerability, and Precipitation and Temperature Trends in Pakistan. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5019
[3]
Death, R.G., Fuller, I.C. and Macklin, M.G. (2015) Resetting the River Template: The Potential for Climate-Related Extreme Floods to Transform River Geomorphology and Ecology. Freshwater Biology, 60, 2477-2496. https://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.12639
[4]
Atallah, M.H., Hazzab, A., Seddini, A., Ghenaim, A. and Korichi, K. (2016) Hydraulic Flood Routing in an Ephemeral Channel: Wadi Mekerra, Algeria. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 2, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-016-0237-0
[5]
Yamani, K., Hazzab, A., Sekkoum, M. and Slimane, T. (2016) Mapping of Vulnerability of Flooded Area in Arid Region. Case Study: Area of Ghardaïa-Algeria. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 2, 147. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-016-0183-x
[6]
Mirza, M.M.Q. (2003) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events: Can Developing Countries Adapt? Climate Policy, 3, 233-248. https://doi.org/10.3763/cpol.2003.0330
[7]
Wu, W., Mhaimeed, A.S., Al-Shafie, W.M., Ziadat, F., Dhehibi, B., Nangia, V. and De Pauw, E. (2014) Mapping Soil Salinity Changes Using Remote Sensing in Central Iraq. Geoderma Regional, 2, 21-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geodrs.2014.09.002
[8]
Tariq, M.A.U.R. (2013) Risk-Based Flood Zoning Employing Expected Annual Damages: The Chenab River Case Study. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 27, 1957-1966. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0730-1
[9]
Gaillard, C., Zagolski, F. and Bonn, F. (1997) Modelling of Human Dimension on Soil Erosion Processes for Remote Sensing Applications. IGARSS’97. 1997 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium Proceedings. Remote Sensing—A Scientific Vision for Sustainable Development, 1, 122-124.
[10]
Syvitski, J.P., Kettner, A.J., Overeem, I., Giosan, L., Brakenridge, G.R., Hannon, M. and Bilham, R. (2013) Anthropocene Metamorphosis of the Indus Delta and Lower Floodplain. Anthropocene, 3, 24-35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2014.02.003
[11]
Qureshi, A.S. (2011) Water Management in the Indus Basin in Pakistan: Challenges and Opportunities. Mountain Research and Development, 31, 252-260. https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-11-00019.1
[12]
Shahid, M.A., Boccardo, P., Usman, M., Albanese, A. and Qamar, M.U. (2017) Predicting Peak Flows in Real Time through Event Based Hydrologic Modeling for a Trans-Boundary River Catchment. Water Resources Management, 31, 793-810. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1435-2
[13]
Zhao, W.L., Li, F.M., Mou, Y.L., Jia, C.J. and Sun, G.J. (2010) Simulation of Farming Suitability for Arid-Agriculture Using a GIS-Evaluation Approach in the Loess Plateau, China. 2010 World Automation Congress, Kobe, 19-23 September 2010, 107-111.
[14]
Satish, S., Nagendra, H. and Ravi, G. (2012) Application of Remote Sensing and GIS for Flood Risk Analysis: A Case Study of Krishna and Tungabadra River Valley. International Journal of Social Science & Interdiscilplinary Research, 1, 50-61.
[15]
Helsel, D.R. and Hirsch, R.M. (2002) Statistical Methods in Water Resources: US Geological Survey Techniques of Water Resources Investigations, Book 4, Chap.
[16]
Rowinski, P.M., Strupczewski, W.G. and Singh, V.P. (2002) A Note on the Applicability of Log-Gumbel and Log-Logistic Probability Distributions in Hydrological Analyses: I. Known pdf. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 47, 107-122. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626660209492911
[17]
Dewan, A.M., Kumamoto, T. and Nishigaki, M. (2006) Flood Hazard Delineation in Greater Dhaka, Bangladesh Using an Integrated GIS and Remote Sensing Approach. Geocarto International, 21, 33-38. https://doi.org/10.1080/10106040608542381
[18]
Bhatt, G.D., Sinha, K., Deka, P.K. and Kumar, A. (2014) Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment in Chamoli District, Uttarakhand Using Satellite Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques. International Journal of Innovative Research in Science, Engineering and Technology, 3, 9. https://doi.org/10.15680/IJIRSET.2014.0308039
[19]
Ahmad, B., Muhammad, S.K., Butt, M.J. and Dahri, Z.H. (2010) Hydrological Modelling and Flood Hazard Mapping of Nullah Lai. Proceedings of the Pakistan Academy of Sciences, 47, 215-226.
[20]
Sun, P., Wang, S., Gan, H., Liu, B. and Jia, L. (2017) Application of HEC-RAS for Flood Forecasting in Perched River—A Case Study of Hilly Region, China. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 61, Article ID: 012067. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/61/1/012067
[21]
Solaimani, K. (2011) GIS-Based Multidate Flood Forecasting Using Hydraulic Model. International Journal of Physical Sciences, 6, 577-582.
[22]
Johnson, C.A., Yung, A.C., Nixon, K.R. and Legates, D.R. (2001) The Use of HEC-GeoHMS and HEC-HMS to Perform Grid-Based Hydrologic Analysis of a Watershed. Dodson & Associates, Houston.
[23]
Che, D. and Mays, L.W. (2015) Development of an Optimization/Simulation Model for Real-Time Flood-Control Operation of River-Reservoirs Systems. Water Resources Management, 29, 3987-4005. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1041-8
[24]
Feldman, A.D. (2000) Hydrologic Modeling System HEC-HMS: Technical Reference Manual. US Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center.
[25]
Horritt, M.S. and Bates, P.D. (2002) Evaluation of 1D and 2D Numerical Models for Predicting River Flood Inundation. Journal of Hydrology, 268, 87-99. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00121-X
[26]
Khattak, M., Anwar, F., Sheraz, K., Saeed, T., Sharif, M. and Ahmed, A. (2016) Floodplain Mapping Using HEC-RAS and ArcGIS: A Case Study of Kabul River. Arabian Journal for Science & Engineering, 41, 1375-1390. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-015-1915-3
[27]
Raaijmakers, R., Krywkow, J. and van der Veen, A. (2008) Flood Risk Perceptions and Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis: An Exploratory Research for Hazard Mitigation. Natural Hazards, 46, 307-322. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-007-9189-z
[28]
Breton, C. and Marche, C. (2001) Decision Support for the Choice of Interventions in a Flood Zone. Journal of Water Science, 14, 363-379. https://doi.org/10.7202/705424ar
[29]
Iosub, M., Enea, A., Hapciuc, O.E., Romanescu, G. and Minea, I. (2014) Flood Risk Assessment for the Ozana River Sector Corresponding to Leghin Village (Romania). 14th SGEM GeoConference on Water Resources Forest, Marine and Ocean Ecosystems, 19-25 June 2014, Vol. 1, 315-322. https://doi.org/10.5593/SGEM2014/B31/S12.041
[30]
De Bruijn, K.M., Klijn, F., Pas, B. and Slager, C.T.J. (2015) Flood Fatality Hazard and Flood Damage Hazard: Combining Multiple Hazard Characteristics into Meaningful Maps for Spatial Planning. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1297-1309. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1297-2015
[31]
Meng, S., Xie, X. and Liang, S. (2017) Assimilation of Soil Moisture and Streamflow Observations to Improve Flood Forecasting with Considering Runoff Routing Lags. Journal of Hydrology, 550, 568-579. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.024
[32]
Arnal, L., Ramos, M.H., de Perez, E.C., Cloke, H.L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F. and Pappenberger, F. (2016) Willingness-to-Pay for a Probabilistic Flood Forecast: A Risk-Based Decision-Making Game. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20, 3109-3128. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016
[33]
Liu, L., Gao, C., Xuan, W. and Xu, Y.P. (2017) Evaluation of Medium-Range Ensemble Flood Forecasting Based on Calibration Strategies and Ensemble Methods in Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. Journal of Hydrology, 554, 233-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.08.032
[34]
Uddin, K., Gurung, D.R., Giriraj, A. and Shrestha, B. (2013) Application of Remote Sensing and GIS for Flood Hazard Management: A Case Study from Sindh Province, Pakistan. American Journal of Geographic Information System, 2, 1-5.