“蛟龙号”A架液压系统模糊故障树分析理论研究
Research on Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis for Hydraulic System of A-Frame Launch & Recovery System for the “Jiaolong” Manned Submersible

为实现“蛟龙号”水面支持液压系统故障准确及时的诊断及排除，引入故障树分析方法理论，结合已有的模糊集合法和可能性基础，提出了一种基于梯形模糊数算术运算的液压系统故障树分析策略,并结合实际操作经验获得顶事件的故障可能性概率和各底事件的模糊重要度，综合利用定量概率值、专家经验判断、可靠性大数据等获得了较为精确的故障区间结果，最后对该结果进行了功能载荷试验验证。经过验证，故障结果区间能够较为准确地反映故障问题，为“蛟龙号”载人潜水器水面支持系统的故障分析提供了较好的理论指导和应用借鉴。
This paper aims at the practical application problems of insufficient lifting force of A frame launch & recovery system for the“Jiaolong”manned submersible. First, a kind of hydraulic system fault tree analysis method is introduced based on the theory of fuzzy. The fault probability of top event and fuzzy importance degrees of bottom events are achieved from experiences and references. In this work we use quantitative probability value, expert experience judgment, and large reliability data to obtain more accurate fault intervals. Finally, the test results show that the fault tree analysis is simple, reliable, stable and easy to use. It can be applied in launch & recovery system for the “Jiaolong” manned submersible.