基于大数据的高速公路运输趋势分析
Trend analysis of expressway transportation based on big data

以中国高速公路联网收费系统数据库为主,辅以收费站典型抽样调查数据,分析了2008～2014年中国高速公路网运输量变化趋势。分析结果表明:2008年以来高速公路客车行驶量比重始终维持在58%～69%。乘用车旅客出行量的持续增长带动旅客运输量继续攀升,2014年高速公路客运量为1.67×1010人次,同比增长14.99%,6年(2009～2014)年均增长15.21%。旅客周转量达到1.47×1012人？km,同比增长12.07%,6年年均增长13.57%,客运量增速远超货运量增速的趋势将会进一步加强。受宏观经济影响,2014年中国高速公路货物周转量为2.33×1012t？km,同比增长约2.35%,6年年均增长11.69%,2014年增幅最小。高速公路空车走行率为24.15%,保持稳定态势; 高速公路上超限30%以上的货车交通量从2008年的5.59%下降到2014年的2.85%,货车计重收费效果明显。
Based on the database of expressway network toll system and the typical sampling investigation data at toll stations, the transportation changing trend of Chinese expressway network in 2008-2014 was analyzed. Analysis result shows that the proportions of buses kilometers in expressway network remained between 58% and 69% from 2008 to 2014. Due to the continuous growth of car travel, the passenger volume in expressway network rose to 1.67×1010 peoples in 2014 and increased by 14.99% compared with the value in 2013, and the annual average growth rate was 15.21% in past 6 years(2009-2014). Passenger turnover volume reached 1.47×1012 peoples？km and increased by 12.07% compared with the value in 2013, and the annual average growth rate was 13.57% in past 6 years. The trend that the growth rate of passenger turnover volume was further greater than the growth rate of freight turnover volume was strengthened. Because of macroeconomic impact, the freight turnover volume in expressway network reached 2.33×1012 t？km in 2014, an increase of about 2.35% was lowest in 6 years, and the annual average growth rate was 11.69% in past 6 years. The percentage of empty to loaded trucks kilometers was 24.15%, and remained a stable situation. The percentage of trucks with the overweight more than 30% decreased from 5.59% in 2008 to 2.85% in 2014, so the effect of charge-by-weight policy was significant. 6 tabs, 7 figs, 21 refs