|
|
- 2016
山西省煤炭消费需求影响因素的实证研究
|
Abstract:
摘要 利用对数均值迪氏分解法和向量自回归模型，分别从流量及存量，静态与动态的角度对1988-2013年山西煤炭消费的影响因素进行实证分析.结果如下：1）经济增长是山西煤炭消费的主要驱动因素.2）技术的进步在短期内抑制煤炭消费，但长期存在“反弹效应”.3）人口规模对煤炭消费流量增长起到微弱促进作用，但人口的城镇化对煤炭消费存量的解释贡献率高达30.91%.4）产业结构的调整对于山西煤炭消费的影响非常微弱，方差分解显示其平均解释贡献率仅为3.98%.要降低煤炭消耗总量，山西省必须加快产业结构的调整，同时积极推动煤炭资源的清洁高效利用，努力实现经济增长与煤炭消费的脱钩.
| [1] | Xu S C,He Z X,Long R Y.Factors that influence carbon emissions due to energy consumption in China:decomposition analysis using LMDI[J].Applied Energy,2014, 127(6):182-193. |
| [2] | Wang Q.China's citizens must act to save their environment[J].Nature,2013,497(7448):159-159. |
| [3] | 刘先涛,石俊.中国能源消费与经济增长的向量自回归模型检验分析[J].统计与决策,2014(10):128-130. |
| [4] | Yong U G,Aie-Rie L.Cointegration,error-correction,and the relationship between GDP and energy:the case of South Korea and Singapore[J].Resource & Energy Economics,1998,20(1):17-25. |
| [5] | Lin B,Moubarak M.Renewable energy consumption:economic growth nexus for China[J]. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews,2014,40(C):111-117. |
| [6] | 梁经纬,刘金兰,柳洲.能源消费与经济增长非线性动态关系研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(5):1-6. |
| [7] | Yoo S H.Causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in Korea[J]. Applied Energy,2006,83(11):1181-1189. |
| [8] | Wang Q, Chen X, Jha A N, et al. Natural gas from shale formation:The evolution, evidences and challenges of shale gas revolution in United States[J]. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews,2014,30(2):1-28. |
| [9] | 陈闻君,佘开勇.中国省域煤炭消费空间格局演化特征[J].地理与地理信息科学,2014,30(2):56-60. |
| [10] | 李连光,景普秋.煤炭资源开发与山西经济增长之间关系的实证研究[J].中北大学学报:社会科学版,2010,26(2):47-54. |
| [11] | 赵国浩,凌涛.可持续发展视角下的山西煤炭工业发展研究[J].煤炭经济研究, 2010,30(5):4-7. |
| [12] | 王保忠,李忠民,王保庆.基于代际公平视角的煤炭资源跨期配置机制研究:以晋陕蒙为例[J].资源科学,2012,34(4):704-710. |
| [13] | 薛曜祖.山西煤炭市场价格指数体系建设研究[J].价格理论与实践,2013(7):66-67. |
| [14] | Xu B,Lin B.Carbon dioxide emissions reduction in China's transport sector:a dynamic VAR (vector autoregression) approach[J].Energy,2015,83:486-495. |
| [15] | 高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2012:320-349. |
| [16] | York R, Rosa E A,Dietz T.STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT:analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts[J]. Ecological Economics,2003,46(3):351-365. |
| [17] | Zhao C,Chen B, Hayat T,et al.Driving force analysis of water footprint change based on extended STIRPAT model:evidence from the Chinese agricultural sector[J].Ecological Indicators,2014,47:43-49. |
| [18] | 张晓峒.计量经济学软件EViews使用指南[M].天津:南开大学出版社,2004:303-310. |
| [19] | Pereira A M,Rui M M P. Is fuel-switching a no-regrets environmental policy? VAR evidence on carbon dioxide emissions,energy consumption and economic performance in Portugal[J]. Energy Economics,2010,32(1):227-242. |
| [20] | 孔宪丽.中国煤炭消费与影响因素动态关系的实证分析:兼论煤炭消费的非对称价格效应[J].资源科学,2010,32(10):1830-1838. |
| [21] | 刘满芝,王锐,周梅华,等.中国区域煤炭消费影响效应的比较分析:基于面板数据模型的实证经验[J].资源科学,2011,33(9):1641-1649. |
| [22] | 张晓.基于山西省煤炭资源可持续发展的研究[J].首都师范大学学报:自然科学版,2016,37(1):72-76. |
| [23] | 赵国浩,车康模,卢晓庆.基于产业集中度视角的山西煤炭资源整合分析[J].煤炭经济研究,2010,30(2):15-18. |
| [24] | 《山西省煤炭价格形成机制研究》课题组.山西省煤炭价格形成机制研究[J].价格理论与实践,2013(7):43-48. |
| [25] | Davis S J,Ken C.Consumption-based accounting of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2010,107(12):5687-5692. |
| [26] | Ang B W,LIU F L.A new energy decomposition method:perfect in decomposition and consistent in aggregation[J].Energy,2001,26(6):537-548. |
| [27] | Ang B W.Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:Which is the preferred method?[J].Energy Policy,2004,22(9):1131-1139. |
| [28] | Ang B W.The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis:a practical guide[J].Energy Policy,2005,33(7):867-871. |
| [29] | Wang Q,Li R R.Journey to burning half of global coal:trajectory and drivers of China's coal use[J].Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016,58:341-346. |
| [30] | 王保忠,黄解宇,王保庆.山西省经济增长与煤炭生产量、消费量的相关性分析[J].技术经济,2008,27(12):60-64. |
| [31] | 张运.山西经济增长与能源消费的关系分析[D].太原:山西财经大学,2012. |
| [32] | 吴青龙,郭丕斌,王云.资源型区域转型视角的山西煤炭市场地位演变分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(1):7-13. |
| [33] | Sims C A.Macroeconomics and Reality[J]. Econometrica,1980, 48(1):1-48. |
| [34] | Nyberg H,Saikkonen P.Forecasting with a noncausal VAR model[J].Computational Statistics & Data Analysis,2014,76:536-555. |
| [35] | Pradhan R P,Arvin M B,Ghoshray A.The dynamics of economic growth,oil prices,stock market depth, and other macroeconomic variables:evidence from the G-20 countries[J].International Review of Financial Analysis,2015,39:84-95. |
| [36] | Ozdemir S,Akgul I.Inflationary effects of oil prices and domestic gasoline prices:Markov-switching-VAR analysis[J]. Pattern Recognition Letters,2011,22(12):1337-1345.</p> |
| [37] | <p> Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Global carbon budget 2014:USA[EB/DL].(2015-03-17)[2015-07-02].http://cdiac.ornl.gov/GCP/carbonbudget/2014/#.DOI:10.5194/essdd-7-521-2014. |
| [38] | Soytas U,Sari R.Energy consumption and GDP:causality relationship in G-7 countries and emerging markets[J].Energy Economics,2003,25(1):33-37. |
| [39] | Yuan J H,Kang J G,Zhao C H,et al.Energy consumption and economic growth:evidence from China at both aggregated and disaggregated levels[J].Energy Economics,2008,30(6):3077-3094. |
| [40] | Yang H Y.A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan[J].Energy Economics,2000,22(3):309-317. |
| [41] | Wolde-Rufael Y.Disaggregated industrial energy consumption and GDP:the case of Shanghai,1952-1999[J]. Energy Economics,2004,26(1):69-75. |
| [42] | Wolde-Rufael Y. Coal consumption and economic growth revisited[J]. Applied Energy, 2010,87(1):160-167. |
| [43] | Li F,Song Z,Liu W. China's energy consumption under the global economic crisis:decomposition and sectoral analysis[J]. Energy Policy,2014,64:193-202. |
| [44] | Govindaraju V G R C,Tang C F. The dynamic links between CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, economic growth and coal consumption in China and India[J].Applied Energy,2013,104(2):310-318. |
| [45] | Tiwari AK,Shahbaz M,Hye Q M A. The environmental Kuznets curve and the role of coal consumption in India:cointegration and causality analysis in an open economy[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2013,18(2):519-527. |
| [46] | 张宏,李仲学.煤炭需求影响因素及情景分析[J].煤炭学报,2007,32(5):557-560. |
| [47] | 林伯强,毛东昕.煤炭消费终端部门对煤炭需求的动态影响分析[J].中国地质大学学报:社会科学版,2014,14(6):1-12. |
