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- 2017
基于CMIP5模型结果的中国陆地生态系统未来碳利用效率变化趋势分析
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Abstract:
摘要 为研究气候变化条件下中国陆地生态系统未来碳利用效率（CUE）变化趋势及其响应，选取第5次耦合模式比较计划12种模型，分析在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5这3种典型排放情景下，2006—2100年中国陆地生态系统总体的CUE变化趋势及其与温度和降水的关系。研究发现，不同模型模拟的中国陆地生态系统总体的CUE变化范围在0.332~0.617，在此期间所有模型模拟结果的平均值保持在0.5左右，其幅度变化较小，随时间呈现略微降低的趋势，并随着辐射强迫水平的增加（从RCP2.6到RCP4.5再到RCP8.5），降低趋势有所加强。未来气候变化背景下，中国陆地生态系统总体的CUE与降水基本呈正相关关系，而与温度基本呈负相关关系。
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