技术进步、生产方式转型与中国生猪养殖温室气体减排
Technology Progress,Production Intensification and Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction in China’s Pig Breeding

基于技术水平和规模化水平时空差异，收集不同养殖模式生长周期、出栏量等关键数据，对全国和各省生猪养殖碳排放量进行估算。结果表明，1998-2015年，全国生猪养殖碳排放量呈震荡上升趋势，从1.08亿吨CO2当量增加到1.33亿吨 CO2当量；规模化养殖逐渐取代散养成为碳排放主体，2015年其排放量占比达到73.57%；四川、湖南、河南、山东等生猪主产省份碳排放量居全国前列；LMDI模型的分解结果表明，生猪产量扩张是碳排放增长的主要驱动力，推动碳排放量增长43.93%，技术进步和养殖规模化则将碳排放增长削减了近一半。因此，提高养殖技术、推动规模化养殖、应用沼气池处理粪污将是重要的温室气体减排措施。
Based on spatial and temporal disparities of technology level and production intensification level and such key data as growth circle of different breeding patterns and quantity,this paper calculates the amount of greenhouse gas emission in pig breeding.The result shows that carbon emission rises by shock trend,increasing from 108 million t CO2 equivalent in 1998 to 133 million t CO2 equivalent in 2015.Intensive pig farms have become the main contributor to carbon emission,whose gas emission reached 73.57% in 2015.Sichuan,Hunan,Henan,and Shandong provinces are the largest producers of carbon emission among all provinces.Furthermore,a LMDI decomposition model shows that expansion of pig production is the main driving force in the growth of carbon emission,which pushes forward the growth rate of carbon emission to 43.93%.Technology progress and production intensification has cut nearly half of the carbon emission.Therefore,improving breeding technology,promoting production intensification and treating feces with biogas digesters are the important measures to reduce carbon emission of greenhouse gas.