美国浓缩苹果汁进口需求及中国的出口策略选择
Import Demand for Concentrated Apple Juice in the U.S. and China’s Export Strategic Choice

基于美国2000年1月至2016年2月的进口数据，运用受约束的区分来源的AIDS模型估计包括中国在内的各主要进口来源国浓缩苹果汁在美国市场的需求弹性，据此评估美国市场的产品需求特征并为我国提出相应的竞争策略。结果表明，美国浓缩苹果汁与苹果的进口市场具有不可分性；且美国市场对各国浓缩苹果汁和苹果的进口需求具有不完全替代关系；美国市场对我国浓缩苹果汁的进口需求对总支出富有弹性，同时对自身价格缺乏弹性；在美国进口市场，我国浓缩苹果汁价格对来自阿根廷等国的浓缩苹果汁进口量有较大的影响，但采取低价竞争的方式虽然可以扩大市场份额，同时也会使我国损失巨大利润，最优的竞争策略应是以更优质的产品获取更高的价格和利润率。
Based on the U.S. import data of the concentrated apple juice from January 2000 to February 2016,this paper applies a restricted version of source differentiated Almost Ideal Demand System (RSDAIDS) to estimate the demand elasticity of the concentrated apple juice from the major sources of imports including China. Furthermore,this paper assesses the trade status of China’s concentrated apple juice in American market and proposes optimum strategies. The result shows that American import market of the concentrated apple juice is inseparable from the apple importing market and the concentrated apple juice and the apple from different sources of imports can’t be imperfectly substituted. U.S. demand for the concentrated apple juice from China is elastic at various levels of expenditure while it is inelastic at various levels of price. In the U.S. import market,the price of China’s concentrated apple juice has a great influence on the import volume of the concentrated apple juice from other countries like Argentina. Although the market share can be enlarged by lower prices,China will lose huge profits. The best competition strategy for China’s concentrated apple juice to be exported to the U.S. should be getting maximum profits by selling premium products at higher prices.