双重不确定性视角下农村居民消费的空间计量分析
Spatial Econometric Analysis of Domestic Rural Residents’ Consumption from the Perspective of Uncertainties

基于1997-2015年中国大陆地区31省的面板数据，划分消费层次和收入账户类别，采用调整离差率对收入不确定性和消费不确定性进行测算，建立引入不确定性的农村居民消费空间计量模型，比较两类不确定性对农村居民消费的影响，辨识两类不确定性中的主要波动因素，分析农村居民消费中的空间溢出效应。结果表明：收入不确定性对农村居民消费具有负向影响，而消费不确定性具有正向影响且影响系数绝对值大于收入不确定性；常用账户中经营收入波动对生存、享受消费影响较大，临时账户中转移收入波动对发展消费影响较大；农村居民消费存在空间溢出效应，且娱乐、发展消费的溢出效应强于生存消费；消费不确定性的空间溢出效应为负，而收入不确定性的空间溢出效应为正。
Based on the panel data covering 31 provinces in Mainland China (1997-2015),this paper stratifies the consumption levels and types of income account and then measures the income uncertainty and the consumption uncertainty by employing the adjusted deviation rate.It establishes the spatial panel model to compare the different impacts of income uncertainty and consumption uncertainty on rural residents’ consumption,identify the main fluctuating factors in the two uncertainties,and analyze the phenomenon of spatial spillover effects in rural residents’ consumption.It is found that income uncertainty is negative to rural residents’ consumption,while the influence of consumption uncertainty is positive and its absolute coefficient is much more than income uncertainty’s; the fluctuation of operating revenue in commonly-used account plays greater role in subsistence and enjoy spending,and the income uncertainty from transfer income in temporary account plays greater role in developing consumption.In addition,there are spatial spillover effects in rural residents’ consumption,and the spatial spillover effects of enjoy and developing consumption are stronger than subsistence consumption.Finally,spatial spillover effects of income and consumption uncertainty are negative to rural residents’ consumption,while income uncertainty has the positive influence.