论新常态下的粮食安全：中国粮食真的过剩了吗？
New Normality and Grain Security:Is There Too Much Grain Supplied in China?

中国粮食生产实现“十一连增”，社会上出现了粮食过剩的舆论，有些看法甚至认为应该取消农业补贴，放开土地流转和耕地使用。针对当前的粮食供需平衡关系从以下4个方面重新展开分析和探讨：“粮食安全”概念的内涵和外延;供需关系的评估标准和方法;供需关系的时空变化以及不确定性风险。分析认为中国粮食不仅没有过剩，而且存在巨大需求缺口，具体表现为功能性缺口、质量性缺口、增长速度缺口和结构性缺口。 目前普通认同的“紧平衡”是政府持续高强度扶持政策下的假性均衡，市场存在扭曲。中国作为一个快速发展的经济和人口大国，供与需的内涵是动态发展的。短期不平衡是恢复到长期相对平衡的必然过程，是当前粮食供需关系新常态。更重要的是，必须将保障“食物安全”取代“粮食安全”作为新的战略目标。在当前形势下，不宜宣导“粮食过剩论”，否则容易导致政策失误和国家安全风险。
China’s grain production has been increasing for 11 years,up to 0.6 billion tons in 2014.Some researchers hence argued that grain in China is oversupplied.Meanwhile,there are voices proposing that agricultural subsidies should be removed and farmland should be permitted for full marketization.This study aims to do a reassessment in 4 directions:(1) The concepts of “Food Security”,“Grain Security”,and “Food Safety”; (2) The methodologies and criterion for assessing market equilibrium; (3) The dynamics of market equilibrium for grain in history; (4) The uncertainty and risks for grain supply in future.The results conclude that China is suffering from shortage rather than overcapacity for grain production.Tight balance is a pseudo equilibrium under continuous support by Chinese governments.Current grain market is imbalanced rather than “tight balanced” with strong intervention and distortion.As a rapid developing nation and economy,China’s demand and supply for grain and food are changing dynamically.Imbalance in the short term is trending to relatively balance in the long term.It is of great importance that Grain Security should be replaced with Food Security as new agricultural strategies in next decades.In sum,under current circumstances,it is necessary to take caution on judgement of “excessive grain” which may do harm to national security and economy.