我国省际耕地综合产出不均衡的分解研究
Decomposition of Spatial Difference on Comprehensive Output of Interprovincial Cultivated Land in China

基于各省2003-2012年单位耕地农业产值面板数据，采用Theil指数及其分解和基于回归的shapley值分解方法，对我国耕地综合产出不均衡进行研究。结果表明，我国耕地综合产出不均衡度存在“减增交替”的波动特征，东中西地带内部省际耕地综合产出差异在考察年度内均存在拐点，八地区的分解显示黄河中游地区内部和东北地区内部在考察年度内耕地综合产出最为不均衡；农均耕地、地均机械投入、农村教育和复种指数等是影响我国耕地综合产出空间均衡度的因素，其中地均机械投入和农村教育对省际耕地综合产出差距的相对贡献率逐渐弱化，复种指数的作用呈强化趋势，农均耕地因素近年来成为弥补省际耕地综合产出差距的力量。
Based on the agricultural output value per unit cultivated land and data of 2003-2012,this paper studies the comprehensive output of spatial difference of China's cultivated land by using Theil index and Shapley value decomposition.The result shows that the comprehensive output of spatial difference of China's cultivated land has the tendency of “reduce-increase” alternation.The internal difference of interprovincial cultivated land comprehensive output in the eastern,middle and western regions of China all have inflection point,and decomposition in eight areas shows that comprehensive output of cultivated land in middle reaches of the Yellow River and northeastern China is the most unbalanced.Cultivated land,agricultural machinery,rural education and multiple crop index are all factors influencing the spatial difference of cultivated land comprehensive output,among which the investment of agricultural machinery and rural education are weakening the interprovincial comprehensive output differences of cultivated land,while the role of multiple crop index is strengthening,and cultivated land in recent years has become the making-up factors for the difference of cultivated land comprehensive output.