挤压当前还是保障未来：中低收入阶层养老保险幸福效应研究
Squeezing Present or Protecting Future： A Study on the Impact of Old-age Insurance System on Happiness of Low and Moderate-income Group

摘要 为了应对日益严峻的老龄化形势，1997年以来我国逐渐建立起了一套广覆盖的基本养老保险制度，皆在于保障老年人退休后的基本生活。尽管养老保险覆盖面得到了较大的提升，但目前学界对于养老保险的保障功能却持有两种相反的意见。本文基于2017年广东省公众福利态度调查数据，运用Ordered Probit模型分析发现：养老保险缴费水平认知越低，中低收入阶层的幸福感越强；养老保险待遇水平认知对中低收入阶层的幸福感不存在影响；相比没有参保，参加养老保险无法提升中低收入阶层的幸福感。以上结论揭示出了中低收入阶层更加关注于养老保险的缴费而非待遇，反映了养老保险对中低收入阶层当前的基本生活水平、就业机会和工资福利水平造成挤压的同时，没有发挥出应有的保障未来养老的预期和功能。本文的发现为未来我国养老保险制度的完善和发展提供了理论依据，对应对我国老龄化危机和实现人民美好生活具有重要的现实意义。
Abstract：In order to tackle the increasingly serious aging structure of population， China has gradually built up a basic old-age insurance system， which aims at protecting the basic life of the elderly after their retirement. Although the coverage has been greatly increased， current researches hold two opposite arguments on the security function of old-age insurance system. Based on the survey data of public welfare attitudes in Guangdong Province in 2017， this research uses Ordered Probit model to analyze the relationship between happiness of the low and moderate-income group and their perception of the payment and treatment of old-age insurance system. Our research finds that the perception of payment of old-age insurance system has significantly negative effect on happiness of low and moderate-income group， while there is no correlation between the treatment of old-age insurance system and happiness of low and moderate-income group. Moreover， compared with low and moderate-income group who doesn’t join the old-age insurance system， joining the old-age insurance system cannot increase happiness of low and moderate-income group. These findings reveal that low and moderate-income group pay more attention to the payment of old-age insurance system rather than the treatment of it，indicating joining the old-age insurance system will reduce the quality of life，job opportunity and salary of low and moderate-income group，but fail to play its role in ensuring their pension at the same time. Our research can provide a theoretical basis for the reform and improvement of China's old-age insurance system， as well as having practical significance on tackling aging crisis and realizing better life.