现阶段我国社会救助财政支出规模适度吗？——基于“巴洛法则”与柯布－道格拉斯生产函数的分析
Is It an Appropriate Scale of Social Assistance Fiscal Expenditure at the Present Stage？——Based on the Analysis of “Barro’s Law”and Cobb-Douglas Production Functions

摘要 社会救助支出作为财政底线民生支出最重要的组成部分，适度的支出规模需满足既能保障民生又能防止救助对象福利依赖的基本要求。本文先从理论层面诠释经济发展与社会救助支出的影响关系，然后运用“巴罗法则”、柯布—道格拉斯生产函数及回归的分析方法，测算了2005—2015年全国范围内及不同区域社会救助财政支出的适度规模。实证发现：就整体而言，现阶段我国社会救助的实际支出规模不断趋于合理，但仍需进一步完善和优化。就不同区域来看，东部的实际支出规模略微超出适度规模，中部社会救助支出规模不断趋于适度支出规模，而西部实际支出规模与适度支出规模相差较大，表明社会救助财政支出规模在地区结构上不尽合理。最后，针对不同区域提出差别化的政策与建议。
Abstract：As the most basic and important part of governmnet expenditure of livelihood， an appropriate scale of social assistance fiscal expenditure needs to satisfy the requierments of securing basic livelihood and preventing the social assistance objects from generating welfare dependence. The paper firstly interprets the relationship between economic development and social assistance fiscal expenditure from the theoretical level. Then it uses “Barro’s law”， Cobb-Douglas production functions and regression analysis to measure the appropriate scale of social assistance fiscal expenditure in different regions in the whole country from 2005 to 2015. The research results show that， the actual expenditure scale of social assistance has gradually become reasonable at present but still needs further improvement and optimization on the whole in our country； From the perspective of different regions，the actual expenditure in the eastern region is slightly higher than the appropriate scale and the actual scale in the central region has been increasing to the appropriate scale， but there is a wide gap between the actual expenditure and the appropriate scale in the western region. Finally，the paper proposes the differentiation strategy should be taken for different regions.