催化效应还是替代效应：互联网使用对农民参与突发群体性事件的影响——基于全国性数据的实证分析
Catalytic Effect or Substitution Effect？ An Empirical Analysis on Internet Use and Sudden Mass Disturbance Based on CGSS2010

摘要 现有研究对互联网使用与突发群体性事件参与之间的关系存在争议，主要有催化论与替代论两种观点。基于CGSS2010的全国性调查数据，本文分析了农民的互联网使用对其参与突发群体性事件的影响。研究发现，互联网使用频率的提高并没有显著增加农民参与突发群体性事件的概率，也就是说，互联网使用没有对农民参与突发群体性事件发挥催化效应；相反，互联网使用频率的增加显著降低了农民参与突发群体性事件的概率，显示出了互联网使用对突发群体性事件参与的替代效应。基于研究发现，考虑到当前农村网民占比和网民规模均远低于城市，采取有效措施进一步促进农村互联网使用的普及，缩小城乡信息鸿沟，对于促进农村基层民主持续发展与社会和谐具有重要意义。
Abstract：Existing literature on the relationship between Internet use and sudden mass disturbance is controversial， mainly embodied as the two views of catalytic theory and alternative theory. Based on a large sample survey data of Chinese General Social Survey 2010 (CGSS2010)， this paper quantitatively studies the impact that Internet use exerts on peasants’ participation in sudden mass disturbance in China. Results show that， the effect that Internet use has on peasants’ participation in sudden mass disturbance is not significantly positive but significantly negative. Namely， the Internet use exerts no catalytic effect but substitution effect on peasants’ participation in sudden mass disturbance. Based on the findings and given that current scale of rural Internet users is still far smaller than that in urban China， to take effective measures to further promote the popularity of Internet use in rural areas and narrow the ruralurban information gap is of great importance for promoting the sustainable development of grassroots democracy and social harmony in rural China.