分布式能源系统最佳策略下碳税与气价敏感性分析
Sensitivity Analysis on Carbon Tax and Gas Price of Distributed Energy System Under Optimal Strategy

针对目前冷热电(CCHP)三联供分布式系统应用的不完善性，提出了一套包含CCHP、电热泵、蓄能系统 的分布式能源系统，以及能够模拟分布式系统负荷和系统效率与负荷率、冷却水温的三维关联模型．考虑系统碳排 放并引进碳税和电力回购(电力反向卖回电网)，提出综合考虑环境性和经济性的碳税附加到电价的折算系数，构建 了以日运行费用为目标的分布式系统分析模型．基于对几种不同运行模式的经济性分析，得出碳税完全附加到电价 时分布式系统经济性优势更明显的结论；以热定电模式为经济性最优的运行模式．最后将分布式系统与传统燃煤电 厂做对比，并对碳税和气价做敏感性分析，可知碳税、气价对分布式系统和燃煤电厂系统的经济性是相互影响的， 当气价为3.15 元/m3、碳税大于0.75 元/kg 时，或碳税为0.30 元/kg、气价小于2.00 元/m3 时，分布式系统经济性 更优．
Considering the limitation of combined cooling，heating and power(CCHP)system application at present，a three-dimensional model simulating the correlation of system load with efficiency，load ratio and cooling water temperature was established，which consisted of CCHP，electric heat pump and energy storage．The conversion coefficient of adding carbon tax to electricity price was put forward，and the system model of distributed system taking the day operating cost as the target was built based on carbon emissions，carbon tax and the electricity buyback from on-site(the surplus electricity out of the distributed system can be sold back to the grid when the generated power exceeds local demands)．Then the conversion coefficient of adding carbon tax to the electricity price that considerated the environment and economy was proposed，the model of regard operating cost as the target was built， based on the analysis on several different operation strategies of the system，it is shown that the distributed system brings out better economic benefit when the carbon tax is added to the electricity price entirely，and the heat priority mode is the best operating strategy．Finally，by comparing the economy of the distributed system with traditional coal-fired power plant system，and conducting a sensitivity analysis on carbon tax value and gas price，it is shown that the carbon tax and gas price for the distributed system and coal-fired power plant system are economically interactive； when the gas price is 3.15 CNY/m3 and carbon tax is higher than 0.75 CNY/kg or the carbon tax is 0.30 CNY/kg and gas price is lower than 2.00 CNY/m3 ，the distributed system has better economic benefit than the traditional coalfired power plant system