线下政治讨论如何激发青年群体的线上政治表达： 一个有调节的中介模型
How of?ine political discussion becomes online political expression: A moderated mediation model

摘要 政治讨论是民主政治的核心。社会心理因素在政治讨论与表达的过程中发挥重要的 作用。本研究基于沉默的螺旋理论，以1076名青年群体为样本，考察意见气候感知在线 下政治讨论与线上政治表达中的作用。结果表明，线下政治讨论通过意见气候一致性的 部分中介效应间接影响线上政治表达，青年群体对网络空间的风险感知大于效能感知， 网络效能感正向调节意见气候感知的中介效应，最终带来政治表达的相应提高；而网络 风险感在线下政治讨论转化为公开政治表达的过程中无显著影响。
Political communication is the soul of democracy. Previous research has found that social psychological factors play an important role in political discussion and expression. Based on the theory of the spiral of silence, this research investigates the mediating role of perceived opinion congruency in the process of offline political discussion becoming online political expression using data collected in questionnaire with a sample of 1076 Chinese young adults. This research has found that of?ine political discussion has an indirect positive relationship with online political expression through its positive relationship with perceived opinion congruency. Also, the indirect relationship is stronger at higher levels of Internet political effcacy. Research also fnds that risk perception of expression of young adults is much higher than internet political effcacy but it has no signifcant in?uence in this mediating process