我国污染密集型产业的显性转移与隐性转移研究
Visible and Invisible Transfer of Pollution-Intensive Industry in China

摘要 从生产与消费相结合的视角出发, 基于“谁消费、谁生产”的原则, 构建资源占用变动的指标来定量评估产业转移, 进一步将产业转移分为传统的基于生产份额变动的显性转移和考虑消费变动的隐性转移。对我国30个省份3个主要水污染密集型产业转移量的实证研究结果表明, 2002—2007年期间造纸及纸制品业主要向东部地区转移, 且主要为生产份额扩大的显性转移; 化学原料及化学品制造业也主要向东部地区转移, 但以生产产品更多地为其他地区所消费的隐性转移为主; 农副食品加工业则主要向中、西部地区转移, 且显、隐性转移均较明显。不同产业表现出不同的产业转移特征, 未来应制定差别化的产业转移管制政策。
Abstract From the perspective of both production and consumption, this paper constructed an index of environmental resources occupation changes to assess the industrial transfer, and divided it into visible transfer based on the traditional changes of production share and invisible transfer based on the changes of consumption. The transfer among China’s 30 provinces for three major water pollution-intensive industries was analyzed. Results in the period of 2002–2007 show that paper products industry transfers out to the eastern region, and visible transfer is dominant; chemicals industry transfers out to the eastern region as well, but invisible transfer is dominant; while agro-food processing industry transfers out to the central and western regions, and both visible and invisible transfer are significant. Given the different transfer characteristics, policies on industry transfer for different industries should be made discriminatingly in the future.