中国潜在风力发电量的年际变化
Interannual Variability of Wind Energy Potential in China

摘要 结合观测资料和数值模拟结果, 基于GE 2.5 MW 风机的功率曲线, 分析1982—2006 年中国大陆陆地上潜在风电量的年际变化。结果表明, RegCM3 模式风速、观测插值风速和两者平均风速对应的 25 年平均年潜在风电量分别为每年 25, 2.5 和11 PWh, 均超过中国2030 年预期电力需求的20% (2 PWh)。三者年潜在风电量的相对标准差分别为 3%, 8%和 5%, 相对极差分别为 15%, 33%和 23%, 年际变化较大。由于风电和电力需求的季节性不匹配以及风电较大的年际变化, 若仅依靠风电, 在夏季容易出现电力缺口, 意味着需要大量后备发电机组, 这将提升发电总成本, 降低风电减排效益。
Abstract Based on the combined data of observations, RegCM3 model and the power curve of GE 2.5 MW wind turbine, the interannual variability of wind energy potential (WEP) over 1982-2006 in China is analyzed. It is calculated that the WEP of RegCM3 wind, observation-adjusted wind and their mean wind is 25, 2.5 and 11 PWh/a, all more than 20% of China’s expected electricity demand in 2030 (2 PWh/a). Their relative standard deviations of yearly WEP are about 3%, 8% and 5%, and their relative ranges of yearly WEP are 15%, 33% and 23%. Because of the seasonal variation of wind energy and electricity demand, power deficit could occur in summer if relying on wind energy only, resulting in a need of huge backup capacity that reduces the economic benefit and emission benefit.