水环境约束下区域适度人口研究
Study of an Optimum Population under the Water Environmental Restriction

摘要 基于区间模糊线性规划方法, 综合考虑区域人均GDP、人均水资源量和人均污水排放量, 构建区域适度人口规划模型, 并以青海省西宁市为案例开展研究。结果表明, 分别在低、中、高满意度情景下, 2020年西宁市适度人口为别为[282.16万, 324.00万], [241.94万, 282.88万]和[220.32万, 261.93万], 同时发现, 可利用水资源总量不足将是限制区域人口发展的主要因素。
Abstract Considering per person GDP, water resource and sewage discharge of per capita, an inexact fuzzy linear programming model is applied for regional population management in Xining, China. The result indicated that the Xining’s population would be [282.16×104, 324.00×104], [241.94×104, 282.88×104] and [220.32×104, 261.93×104] under the scenario of low, medium and high degree of satisfaction. Meanwhile, the shortage of available water resource would be the limiting factor on the growth of regional population.