近65年我国粮食生产能力提升及发展预期
Promotion of China’s Grain producing Capacity in Last 65 Years and Anticipation of Its Future Development

1949-2014年的65年间,我国粮食产量在1949年的1.1亿吨基础上,以5个亿吨级的增量,于2013年跨上6亿吨的历史高度,2014年达到6.071亿吨。65年间的增量之多、增幅之大、增速之快,前所未有、举世瞩目。1984年登上4亿吨台阶起,超越美国稳居世界第一产粮大国地位,实现了人均占有的世界水平的赶超,使温饱步入小康生活成为可能,坚实了国家粮食安全基础。65年我国粮食发展的成效,是生产关系不断适应生产力发展的中央大政方针推行的成效,是科学技术不断进步的成效,是国家惠农优粮实施的成效。依照65年间我国粮食总量增长、单产提高以及多熟种植发展轨迹及趋势,预计到人口峰值逼近的2030年,我国将能形成一个新的亿吨级的粮食生产能力,登上7亿吨级的新高度。对此,强化我国政府在粮食生产发展中可替代的作用,认真总结“十一连增”的宝贵经验,极尽可能地避免历史时期的“超常型波动”,坚持“一靠政策”“二靠科学”“三靠投入”的宝贵经验、不断创新的科学技术以及今非昔比的农业现代化条件,新的亿吨级生产能力的形成应属可行之举
In the last 65years, China’s grain yield rose by 500 million tons, from 110 million tons in 1949 to 600 million tons in 2013, and reached 607.1 million tons in 2014.The amount, scale and speed of its increase are unprecedented and have attracted the attention around the world.Reaching 400 million tons in 1984, it surpassed that of the United States and became No.1 of the world, which laid a solid foundation of the nation’s food security and enabled the promotion of the people’s living standard from basic level to well off.The achievements of China’s grain production in the last 65 years result mainly from the central movement’s favorable policy to agriculture and progress of farming technology.Based on reviewing the developing track and trend of China’s grain production in raising total yield, output per unit area and extension of multiple cropping systems, it is anticipated that it will reach a new height of 700 million tons by 2030 when the nation’s population approaches the peak.Furthermore, an even higher goal may be achieved if we make every effort to strengthen the irreplaceable role of the government in grain production, to sum up the valuable experience of eleven year continuous increase of grain yield, to avoid the repeat of abnormal fluctuation in the history, to persist on the way of relying on policy, technology and input, and to make full use of modernized conditions of agriculture.