加入WTO以来中国农业产业安全分析
Analysis of Security of Chinese Agricultural Industry Since Joining WTO

加入WTO以来,随着中国农产品市场开放程度加大,国外大量农产品和直接投资进入中国市场,对中国农业产业安全形成一定威胁。采用熵权法实证测量加入WTO以来大豆、玉米和棉花三类敏感性农产品产业安全水平的演变,进而从进口来源地和进口依赖性两方面探寻产业安全的威胁源头。研究表明:大豆产业已处于“危机”状态,主要威胁来自美国;玉米产业由“基本安全”转为“不安全”状态,主要威胁来自美国;棉花产业也处于“危机”状态,主要威胁来自美国和印度。针对中国农业产业安全状况,提出加强农业产业安全风险预警预控研究,确保农产品进口量与国内产业保护力度成正比以及构建农业产业安全保护体系的对策建议。
Since China got access to WTO in 2001, a large number of foreign agricultural products and FDI flooded into China's market, which inevitably threatened the security of its agriculture at some extent. This paper chooses three types of sensitive agricultural products including soybean, maize and cotton, sets up industry security indices and make empirical study on Chinese agricultural industry security, and finally explores the real threat to agricultural industry safety by analyzing the sources of imports and import dependency. The study reveals that the soybean industry is in crisis and the main threat is from the United States, the maize industry changed from basically safe to unsafe and the main threat also comes from the United States, and the cotton industry is in crisis and the main threat comes from the United States and India. Finally, we propose to strengthen the agricultural industry security risk warning and pre-control study, to establish countermeasure allowing intensity of the domestic industry protection directly proportional to quantity of importing agricultural products, and to construct agricultural industry security protection system.