农民进城购房支付能力实证研究
Empirical Research on Paying Ability of Peasants Entering City for Urban Housing in China

农民是城镇化的主体，客观科学测算农民进城购房的支付能力，对制定城镇化与房地产发展政策均有重要意义。结合农民进城购房的特点，构建了农民进城前的纵向财富积累的首付支付能力指标，与农民进城后收入市民化的当期财富获取能力的月供支付能力指标，对全国以及大部分地区农民进城购房支付能力进行了测评。结果显示：地区间存在支付能力差异，但差异逐渐趋于平稳发展态势；2010-2011年为21世纪以来支付能力最低点，但2016年全国住宅价格出现普遍性上涨并存在持续性，可能会出现新的支付能力最低点；农民高收入家庭具有有限的城镇住房支付能力，中等偏上与中等收入家庭支付能力较弱，中等偏下与低收入家庭支付能力严重不足。
The peasants are the subject of urbanization, and their paying ability is an important influencing factor of the urban housing market. Accurately evaluating the paying ability of the peasants is very important for making policy of urbanization and estate development. Based on the features of peasants to buy a house in town, this paper constructs two evaluation indices of the paying ability of the first payment and monthly payment, evaluating the national and each region’s peasants paying ability of the urban housing price based on the wealth accumulation and current paying ability. The results show that there are differences among regions, but the differences are changed to be steady. The paying ability is the lowest in 2010-2011 this century, but in 2016 the national housing prices generally rising, which has shown sustainability, that may be the lowest level of new payment capacity. The paying ability of high income peasant families is just exceeding the urban low rent housing. The paying ability of above average and middle income families is weak. The paying ability of moderate below and low income families is strongly insufficient. Those four stratums are within the scope of insurance coverage of the urban low rent housing.