走向“终结”抑或迈向转型：传统“小农”的现代转向
Facing With Renascence or Turning to Terminal Bouton: Modern Transition of Traditional Chinese Farmers

农民问题作为“三农”问题的核心问题，一直受到学界的关注。在现代化的洗礼中，我国农民群体的未来走向并不明朗。跳出现有的小农“终结论”与“再生论”的二元格局，需将眼光投射到整个农民群体进行研究。基于中国特殊的户籍政策和土地制度，农民未来的走向在小农长期存在的基础上，大量的农村剩余劳动力走向现代化，进而呈现村落的终结、农民的职业化、就地非农化、农民工市民化以及城乡一体化这五种符合国情的现代化路径。农民群体未来走向的更深层意义是：如何在国家制度变革的过程中，激发农民自身的主体性作用，创建适应中国现代化过程的基本路径。
During the modern transition of society, as the core topic of the “three rural issues”, the future trend of farmers is not clear. In this paper, we try to break away from the dualistic patterns which are “terminal bouton theory”and “renascence theory”. Then we try to focus on the whole farmer group. Based on China’s special household registration policy and land system, the small holds of farmers will exist for a long time. At the same time, a number of rural surplus labors will be modernized. Specifically, there are five paths for rural modernization, which are the end of villages, the professionalization of farmers, the local non-agronalization, the citizenization of migrate workers, and the integration of urban and rural areas. In every path, how to stimulate farmers’ own subjectivity to adapt the modernization process has a deep meaning.