人口半城镇化对房地产价格的影响研究——作用机制与实证分析
Influence of Semi-urbanization of Population on Real Estate Price——Mechanism and Empirical Analysis

在对人口半城镇化影响房地产价格的作用机制进行理论分析的基础上，对二者的动态关系进行了实证研究。结果表明：人口半城镇化会造成半城镇化人口在常住地和户籍地之间往返生活，引发过度的住房需求，并通过半城镇化人口在两地的居住消费行为对房地产价格变动产生需求拉动效应和成本推动效应；人口半城镇化构成了房地产价格变动的单向格兰杰原因，人口半城镇化率的提高对房地产价格上涨具有程度较大和时间较为持久的正向作用。
Based on the theoretical analysis of the mechanism of semi-urban population impacting real estate prices, this paper conducts empirical research on their dynamic relationship. The results show that the semi-urbanization of the population can cause the semi-urbanized population to move back and forth between their place of permanent residence and their place of domicile, triggering their over-living needs. They make demand-pull effect and cost-push effect on the real estate price change through their specific housing consumer behavior in both places. From the results of empirical analysis, the semi-urbanization of population constitutes the Granger causality in the real estate price changes. The improvement of the rate of semi-urban of the population has a positive effect on the rise in real estate price to a large extent and for a long time.