房地产价格对我国城镇居民消费的长短期影响研究
The Research on Short- and Long-term Influences of the Real Estate Prices on Consumption

考虑居民收入等级不同，对住房属性偏重不同，将居民分为不受到流动性约束型、不完全受到流动性约束型、完全受到流动性约束型三类。基于各自目标函数及约束条件，确定动态面板模型检验房价与消费的协整关系，并构建动态面板误差修正模型，结果显示：全国层面，收入是影响消费的核心因素，房价上涨、预期房价上涨影响消费为挤出效应，且存在长期均衡关系；居民层面：不受到流动性约束的居民，收入不是消费的重要因素，而其余两类居民的消费受收入、习惯强度影响较大，且流动性约束越强，影响更为明显；不受到流动性约束的居民，在短期及长期内，房价上涨、预期房价上涨影响消费为财富效应；而其余两类居民，影响为挤出效应，强度大于前者的财富效应，且流动性约束越强，抑制作用更为显著。
In terms of the income differences, and preference differences in housing dual attributes, residents are divided into three groups: residents with liquidity not being constrained, residents with liquidity not being fully constrained, and residents with liquidity being completely constrained. Based on their respective objective function and constraint conditions, a dynamic panel model is constructed to determine the cointegration relationship between house prices and consumption, and build dynamic panel error correction model. The results show that：①on the national level, income is the core factor, and the effect of housing price rise and expected housing price rise on consumption is a squeezing effect; ②on the resident level, for residents with no liquidity constraint, income is not an important factor of consumption, and the other two groups' consumption are greatly influenced by income and habits-- the stronger the liquidity constraints, the more obvious the effect; for residents with no liquidity constraints, in the short and long term, prices rising and expected price rising affect wealth, thus in turn affects consumption; the other two types of residents experience the effect of crowding out; the strength is greater than the former wealth effect, and the stronger the liquidity constraint, the more significant the inhibition effect.