地方政府债务规模与影子银行实证研究
An Empirical Study on the Scale of Local Government Debt and Shadow Banking

选取2002-2016年的时间序列数据，运用VAR模型考量地方政府债务和影子银行的关系，结果发现：地方政府债务和影子银行间是长期均衡关系；地方政府债务和影子银行存在单项因果关系，即影子银行是地方政府债务的原因，而地方政府债务不是影子银行的原因；地方政府债务对自身的促进作用小于影子银行对地方政府债务的促进作用，影子银行对自身的推动作用大于地方政府对影子银行的推动作用。
This paper selects the time series data from 2002 to 2016 and uses VAR model to analyze the relationship between local government debt and shadow banking. The results show that the relationship between local government debt and shadow banking is a long-term equilibrium; local government debt and shadow banking are single causality, that is, shadow banking is the reason of local government debt, and local government debt is not the reason of shadow banking. The promotion effect of local government debt is smaller than that of shadow banking, and the role of shadow banking is greater than that of local government.