地方政府举债影响工业经济增长的空间效应研究
A Spatial Effect Study on Industrial Economic Level of Local Government Debts

通过构建了地方政府举债影响工业经济增长的理论模型，并分析两者呈正向相关的作用机制；基于空间关联模型，采用2010-2015年全国30个省份地方政府债务的面板数据，对地方政府举债的工业经济增长效应进行实证研究。结果表明：(1)地方政府举债对工业经济增长具有显著的促进作用。地方政府通过对国有土地的绝对垄断来经营城市，利用土地抵押融资来大规模举债，并改善城市基础设施吸引投资，促进工业经济增长；(2)地方政府举债对地区工业经济增长的溢出效应不明显。地方政府债务主要投向了市政建设、交通运输等基础设施建设领域，对邻近地区的工业经济发展很难起到推动作用。
A mathematical model are built for the analysis of the mechanism of local government debts on promoting industrial growth from a theoretical perspective. Based on spatial correlation model, China's provincial panel data from 2010 to 2015 about local government debts are applied to make the empirical research of local government debts' effect on industrial economic growth. Results indicate that local government debts have positive influence on industrial economic level significantly. Local government made construction land prices lower by making differential distribution of state-owned construction land, and put most of the debt income into strengthening infrastructure construction which realize the investment promotion and industrial economic development. And the spatial spillover effect of local government debts on industrial economic growth is insignificant. Local government debts are mainly used to the municipal construction, transportation and other infrastructure construction field, which inform a large number of effective assets with long-term profits, but these assets are hard to play an important role in promoting economic development for the industry economic level of adjacent areas. These conclusions are valuable for making relevant policies on China's local debts and simulating economy.