商贸服务业发展对农产品价格波动影响的实证研究
An Empirical Analysis of the Impacts of Commercial Service on the Agricultural Product Price Fluctuation

以中国1980~2014年共35年宏观经济数据为样本，采用向量误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数及方差分解等方法，考量商贸服务业对农产品价格波动的动态影响。结果表明：批发零售对农产品价格存在时滞的、长期且稳定的负向影响；交通运输短期内会对农产品价格产生负向影响，但这一影响不能持续；长期来看，其投资额的增加会推动农产品价格的上涨。为此，要加大力度建设农村商贸流通体系，加快发展涉农批发及零售业，大力发展涉农现代物流业。
This paper analyzes the mechanism of commercial services impacting on agricultural product price fluctuation. we employ the vector error correction model, the impulse response function and the variance decomposition method to examine the dynamic relationship between them, based on 35 years macroeconomic data spanning from 1980 to 2014. The empirical results suggest that wholesale/ retail has a lag, long-term and stable negative influence on agricultural product price; transportation, in the short term, has a negative influence on agricultural product price but cannot be sustained. In the long run, the increasing investment in transportation will lead to more agricultural price fluctuation. Thus, we should give energetic support to the construction of rural circulation system, speed up the development of agricultural wholesale/ retail industry and agricultural modern logistics industry.