经济增长、能源转型与CO2排放的长期均衡——基于省级面板数据的实证分析
Research of Long-run Equilibrium between Economic Growth/ Energy Transformation and CO2 Emissions——An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data Analysis

采用线性面板计量方法，依据2000~2014年中国30个省区CO2排放因子数据，考量经济增长、能源转型与CO2排放的长期均衡关系。结果表明：工业经济部门能源消费是导致CO2排放增加的重要因素；能源强度与CO2排放之间存在显著相关性与长期均衡性，能源强度降低1%，CO2排放量将减少0.22%；可再生能源替代化石能源对CO2排放具有长期抑制作用，可再生能源占比每增加1%，CO2排放量将减少0.48%。鉴此，应转变经济增长方式，实现能源转型战略，包括提高能源效率、可再生能源替代等政策建议。
The linear panel measurement method was used to analyze the data of CO2 emission factors in 30 provinces in China during 2000-2014. The results of the empirical study are obtained as follows. Energy consumption is an important factor leading to the increase of CO2 emissions in the industrial sector; there is a significant correlation between energy intensity and CO2 emissions and long-term equilibrium; energy intensity decreased by 1%, CO2 emissions will be reduced by 0.22%; renewable energy to replace fossil fuels has a long-term inhibition of CO2 emissions, renewable energy accounts for each increase of 1%, CO2 emissions will be reduced by 0.48%. This paper also puts forward some suggestions on how to change the mode of economic growth and realize the strategy of energy transformation, including improving energy efficiency and renewable energy.