住房支付能力影响农业人口流动的实证研究
A Empirical Research on Farming Peoples Migration：The Impact of Housing Affordability

基于中国健康和营养调查（CHNS）八个年度九个省份的微观数据，构建纳入住房支付能力的哈里斯-托达罗人口流动模型，运用Probit方法，检验住房支付能力对农村劳动力外出就业决策的影响。结果表明：在分别控制了劳动者职业特征、健康状况和家庭负担之后，较低的住房支付能力均降低了农村劳动力迁移到城市就业的概率。因此，提高流向城市的农村劳动力住房支付能力，有利于促进城乡人口流动，进而推进城镇化的进程。
Based on the micro data for 8 years in 9 provinces from China Health and Nutrition Survey（CHNS），the paper constructs a Harris Todaro model on migration with housing affordability，and examines the impact of housing affordability on rural migrant labor decisions by Probit method.The results show that：by controlling the characters of occupations，health conditions and family burdens of different rural immigrants，housing affordability reduces the probability of migration.