自我信贷配给、农村家庭财务能力与非正规借贷——基于江苏省495户农村家庭的调查
Self-credit Rationing, Financial Capacity of Rural Households and Informal Financial Market Lending Based on a Survey of 495 Rural Households in Jiangsu Province

通过建立分位数回归模型，分析了自我信贷配给农村家庭财务能力水平与其非正规借贷规模之间的关系，实证结果显示：具有自我信贷配给特征的农村家庭，家庭财务能力与非正规借贷数量显著正相关；其中财务能力较低组农村家庭，其财务能力与借贷规模呈显著负相关关系；财务能力中等组农村家庭，其借贷规模受到财务能力的正向影响；财务能力较高组农村家庭，其借贷规模受到财务能力的正向影响越大。从而验证了我国农村“越穷越借，越借越穷”与“量入为出，不愿负债”并存的现象。因此，加强农村金融知识培训与普及、引导农村居民形成理性财务思维，提高农村家庭财务能力将有助于农村家庭更好地通过使用非正规借贷优化家庭财务效用。
Based on the theory of family finance,this paper builds and measures the financial capabilities of rural households, and fakes this as an explanatory variable. In the recognition of self-credit rationing on the basis of rural families,this paper tries to use this explanatory variable to explain the self-credit rationing practices of rural households. Through the establishment of quantile regression model to analyze the relationship between the self-credit rationing of rural households and the scale of informal credit in the different levels of financial capabilities. The empirical results show: the rural families which have self-credit rationing characteristics are strongly associated with the amount of informal credit; where the financial capacity of the lower group of rural families, their financial ability and loan size has significant inverse relationship; the financial capability of a medium group of rural families, the size of their lending by the positive impact of financial capability; financial group of rural families can be higher, the scale of their lending by the greater positive impact of financial capability. This study verifies the phenomenon of coexistence "the poorer, the more loan; and the more loan, the poorer", and "living within one's means, and being shy from debt". Therefore, strengthening rural financial literacy training and popularization, guiding rural residents to form rational financial thinking and raising the ability of rural household finances will help rural families to better optimize the effectiveness of family finances by using informal credit.