中国财险业台风灾害偿付能力评估——基于Cummins模型的研究
Assessing the Solvency of China's Insurance Industry with Typhoon Disaster Based on the Cummins Model

发生频率高、致灾影响大的台风灾害已成为制约沿海地区生产生活正常运行的重要因素，而现行以政府为主导的单一救灾方式易造成巨大的财政负担。商业保险等市场机制的引入，无疑成为海洋灾害风险分散的有益尝试。对此，基于Cummins偿付反应函数模型，以台风频发、灾情较重的浙江、福建、广东、海南四省为研究对象，计算中国财险业对台风灾害损失的偿付能力。结果显示，中国财险业对台风灾害损失的实际赔付率仅为理论值的16%，保险市场对台风灾害损失有较充裕的偿付空间。
High frequency of occurrence and serious impact of the typhoon disaster have become important factors in the normal development of social and economic life for coastal areas. The relief approach led by government undoubtedly has caused great financial burden due to the lack of specific insurance products. It would be a useful means of introducing commercial insurance to risk diversification. This paper calculates the property insurance solvency of Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong and Hainan, who are the usual typhoon-hit areas, based on the established reimbursement reaction function by Cummins. The result shows that the actual payment of our country's insurance industry is 16% of the theoretical and it also means that there is ample space on the insurance market to deal with typhoon disaster risks.