中国公共预算约束软化的体制成因：理论分析与实证检验
Institutional Cause of Soft Constraint on Public Budget in China:Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test

科学和民主的预算管理制度建立前，税制和分税制对政府预算约束有重要作用。中国税制和分税制缺乏内生约束机制，地方政府有空间和激励突破预算框架参与过度财政竞争，使公共预算约束软化。根据公共预算软约束的估计和面板probit模型，1994年的税制和分税制改革整体硬化了全国预算收入约束，但导致东部的预算收入约束软化，且未改善预算支出约束。现行税制和分税制下，不规范的税收优惠政策、投资扩张冲动和专项转移支出依赖是导致公共预算约束软化的重要机制。
Before a scientific and democratic budget management institution is built, the tax system and the tax-sharing system play a major role as a budget constraint. For the lack of endogenous constraint mechanism in China's tax system and tax-sharing system, there exist room and motivation for the local government to break through the budget framework to participate in excessive financial competition, which makes the budget constraint softened. According to the estimation of soft budget constraint as well as the panel probit model, the fiscal reform in 1994 has hardened the revenue constraint at a national level but softened the constraint for eastern region; meanwhile, the reform didn't significantly improve the expenditure constraint. Under the current tax system and tax-sharing system, the illicit tax preference, investment expansion impulsion as well as the dependence upon specific transfer payment are the important mechanisms for the soft constraint on the public budget.